Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said Tuesday that Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next 10 years that could be prevented by a buildup of NATO's armed forces, the New York Post reported.
In recent months, Western officials have increasingly warned of the Russian military threat to countries along NATO's eastern flank and have called on the bloc's European countries to ramp up their weapons production.
The chief of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said the assessment was based on Russia's plans to double its forces along the borders of NATO member countries Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania.
"Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so," intel chief Kaupo Rosin told reporters upon the release of the agency's annual threats report.
He said that it is "highly unlikely" that Russia will launch an imminent military attack, as it must maintain troops in Ukraine and said that such a scenario would remain unlikely if Europe matched the buildup of Russian military forces.
"If we are not prepared, the likelihood [of a military Russian attack] would be much higher than without any preparation," Rosin added.
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Estonia and the other Baltic States increased their defense spending to more than 2% of the value of their economies and NATO allies deployed more resources to the region.
By 2027, Germany is expected to have 4,800 troops on the ground in those countries, which would be its first permanent foreign deployment since World War II. Rosin said NATO and its allies are on track to check the threat of Russian aggression.
There likely will not be a Russian advance in Ukraine before the March presidential elections, Rosin said, because the Kremlin would need to mobilize a substantial number of additional troops to do so.
Responding to likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's comments that he would not defend NATO member countries who do not spend enough on defense, Rosin said "such statements are never helpful."
He added that "probably the Russians are paranoid enough not just to listen to the words which are said, but they will definitely look at the actions."
Russia is also in a better position to supply its forces with ammunition than Ukraine is and the situation on the battlefield will likely remain the same, Rosin said, unless the West maintains or increases its support of Kyiv.