"It’s a black swan!" This timeless cry heard from bankers, media-types, and analysts of all persuasions, a defensive "go-to" when something unforeseen happens with immediate dire consequences.
Unforeseen to them that is, to put a finer point on it.
Let’s reflect on recent black swans, each with catchy names: COVID-19, Black Lives Matter (BLM)/Antifa Riots, the Election of 2020, the Kabul Retreat, the Ukraine War, Inflation, etc.
Brace yourself.
The flock of crises now circling like vultures has two new members: Diesel and Famine.
Diesel
Recently the Energy Information Agency (EIA) dropped a fun fact — not captured in major headlines, that U.S. refined diesel stocks were down to 25 days.
Experts agree this is a critical condition; the worst since 1951.
Depending on supply replenishment rates, that number will fluctuate up and down modestly.
With Northeastern refineries running at max output, the increased demand in Europe due to the Ukraine war and winter approaching, the direction of this emergency indicator will likely worsen.
Diesel drives everything.
Add Food to the Mix
If you think water and food are important for our survival, make sure you add diesel to the that very critical list.
Without diesel — which according to the EIA "is the common term for the distillate fuel oil sold for use in motor vehicles that use the compression ignition engine named for its inventor, German engineer Rudolf Diesel," — everything stops.
That means trucks, trains, barges, ships . . . all of them cease to run.
And the results?
No food to grocery stores; no parts to factories; no coal to power plants.
Without diesel, America’s economic engine ceases, arriving at (and ending with) the sound of a loud screeching, ear-splitting halt.
Do you think we are all unified against Vladimir Putin in the current war? Think again.
We are now pitted against our European allies in a fight on the high seas for shipments from Saudi Arabia where the soldiers in this war are the energy traders.
EuroNews reported two such events where 90,000 tons of crude were diverted before the ships could reach Europe. Why do we hear so little about this and what it could mean?
Perhaps the media agenda prioritizes the midterm elections over our energy and food security.
Famine
Famine is a bird of the feather with diesel. Famine flourishes when diesel is gone.
The perfect storm for food security to crash could not be more optimal.
U.S. grain silos along the Mississippi River are filled to the brim, unable to get to their markets because the river levels have choked the barge traffic.
The great North American train strike still looms, leftover from the COVID-19 vaccination mandates.
Meanwhile, in the background, unelected technocrats refuse to provide farmers with any relief for inflation, dictate how much they can grow, attack their access to fertilizer and encourage the sale of farmland to foreign adversaries, and American oligarchs.
Are you getting the picture now?
Not even a small Amish farmer serving 4000 customers can escape the state’s zeal.
Make no mistake — whether you are Amish or agnostic, you will get no quarter if your mission does not align with the Washington dictate.
In Europe, the aggression against farmers is far worse.
After declaring war on fertilizer, the Netherlands government, led by World Economic Forum (WEF) darling, Prime Minister Mark Rutte, is moving forward to set the climate cultist example by seizing 600 farms.
Most European countries have some flavor of the Holland war on farmers effort underway.
And still the war to curb Putin with sanctions rages on. Who wins that war? No one.
Putin gets exactly what he wants, and Europeans spend a dreadful winter cold and hungry.
Is it 2022 or 1942?
On Dec. 6, 2022 the EU (European Union) minus an increasing number of dissenters will end Russian oil imports.
No Deal on Grain
In the wake of drone attacks on the Black Sea Fleet, Russia announced it was done with the Turkish brokered deal to get Ukraine grain exports out. Simultaneously they announced that poor African nations facing famine would receive free Russian grain.
Who loses?
Europe does. Most of the Ukrainian grain was fetching best price in the EU.
For those in the Mideast and Africa who don’t receive the Russian welfare, they will join the millions of migrants flooding into the continent. Will they find food when they arrive?
Black Swans Identified
Where are the analysts and wizards of brilliance in North America and Europe to provide insight and intelligence on the possibility of diesel scarcity and famine?
The halls of K Street are eerily silent — no diplomatic meetings, peace talks, regulatory discussions, tax rollbacks or other incentives to jump start an economic juggernaut to turn around the crisis?
In the express lane to a global war against the average Joe and Joan, we see the World Economic Forum leadership white-knuckling the steering wheel straight off the cliff.
Next Stop: One World Government
Don’t believe a word they say when the global elites cry foul, claiming; "No one could see this coming."
We did. We are putting the clarion call out. Are you listening?
Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt (retired) is a co-founder of Restore Liberty, a former deputy representative to NATO, a lifetime member on the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Newsmax contributor. The views presented are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or its components. Read Holt's reports — More Here.
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