Welcome India Like Our Future Depends on It, Because It Does

India Is a Global Player, It's Time to Start Treating Them as Such 

The visit to Beijing; a new yet regrettable episode of U.S.-Chinese relations where our secretary of state was denied diplomatic protocol and honors appropriate to his office, but not spared an ounce of venom in a two-day torrent of lectures which had the bizarre optics of a trip to the proverbial "principal’s office."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, like his boss, President Joe Biden, is weak.

This adds to the very hard, real fact that the Sino-U.S. relationship continues to drift toward a dark, dangerous place.

However, there is a silver-lining; just like all American stories, opportunity comes knocking.

On Thursday, June 22, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi will come to Washington D.C. for a full state visit, one with all the bells and whistles.

Thankfully, Modi is popular in both countries, which means his visit could not be coming at a better time.

Let's look as India’s global position (ranking).

It's the fifth largest economy, largest democracy. It is an Asian heavyweight.

This places it in a key position in the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Plus (BRICS+) consortium.

This scenario positions India (and its leader!) to play a key role in advancing solutions to some of the most daunting geopolitical challenges.

India is not a fan of the idea that the BRICS+, gaining new members every week, would be led by China.

In China the Indians have a fierce regional competitor and have been on the receiving end of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aggression on its border.

If there is a fly in this ointment (in the CCP dream to de-dollarize the world) it lies with India’s reservation about China’s hegemonic goals to redefine the world order.

Although India is not a member of the G7, Prime Minister Modi was at the recent, May summit in Japan providing leadership, especially in urging peace in Europe, and calling for increased humanitarian support for Ukrainian victims and refugees.

In politics, especially global realpolitik, there are no such things as friends, only allies, or as Lord Palmerston (British statesman; prime minister, 1855–8, 1859–65), is purported to have said, "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow," (House of Commons, March 1, 1848).

India is looking for respect, not a permanent ally.

If the administration can keep this in mind during the visit, they will be well on their way to their first geopolitical success.

India is looking to enhance the relationship with the U.S. but hold fast to the Modi vision of Strategic Autonomy or to put it simply; "India First." (Hopefully this sounds familiar to some!)

After all, India is in an incredible position these days and a healthy relationship with Uncle Sam can only enhance Indian goals. Beijing continues to wreck itself post-COVID-19 with Xi Jinping Thinking, as it's termed by the party.

Since the first COVID-19 lockdowns in China, China continues to economically implode.

Xi’s Cultural Revolution 2.0 policies have been wildly unfriendly to foreign businesses and its own technology entrepreneurs.

Despite the propaganda, China has steadily put its Iron Curtain back together, while Xi reactivates the Mao playbook, encouraging the freshly educated to head to the fields and grow food because the cities offer no jobs.

China’s manufacturing is down by 50% from pre-COVID days. 13,500 of its millionaires have fled with or without their wealth.

Over 500 foreign businesses have shuttered China operations in Shanghai alone.

In the last week over $3 billion of foreign investment has left China.

Who wins?

India!

Apple is one of many that are making the jump to the more stable environment in India, gradually moving its iPhone production there, as an example.

The Indians boast an incredible technology sector on their own with deep relationships with Silicon Valley.

This isn’t to say that all is perfect with the flight of manufacturing from China.

Here lies the motivation for the Modi mission to the U.S.

Although India led the pack last year with over $86 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Malaysia have been successful at grabbing the flight-from-China dollars.

This is where the administration can score.

Prime Minister Modi would like to take advantage of the trend in reconstruction of global supply chains, at China’s expense.

At the same time, the U.S. and India have mutual interests in checking Chinese, Asia destabilizing aggression.

The U.S. has a crisis-level imperative to shore up the dollar as the world reserve currency.

While we focus appropriately on war in Ukraine, the Chinese have steadily capitalized on anti-U.S. sentiments, rallying support for de-dollarizing the global economy.

Simultaneously, the U.S. economy and military are weakened at a time when the potential for more wars in Asia, Africa, and the Mideast are increasingly likely:

• Can we not be supportive of increased Indian representation in world forums like the U.N. Security Council and G7?
• Do we not have the power to incentivize U.S. businesses and banks to increase investment?
• Can we increase the military-to-military relationships?
• Are there more ways to represent Indian culture in our American story?

If the U.S. can respect India’s strategic autonomy boundaries and offer a package of relationship enhancing initiatives, whether economic, militarily or culturally, the U.S. may wind up with something far more valuable than an ally; we may have found a friend.

Let’s encourage our leaders to be at their best and welcome Prime Minister Modi and India with wide open arms.

(Related stories may be found here, and here.)

Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt (retired) is a co-founder of Restore Liberty, a former deputy representative to NATO, a lifetime member on the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Newsmax contributor. The views presented are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or its components. Read Gen. Holt's reports — More Here.