Our world is on the brink.
Flash points surround us: Asia, the Mideast, Europe — with energy, famine, and a war so dry, just a small spark could bring us all to World War III.
The existential ramifications for civilization provide a real threat to security.
This week we all gasped for a moment when a Russian rocket obliterated a grain silo on the Polish border with Ukraine. The missile killed two, but we all wondered: "Was this the spark that would ignite it all?"
It looked horrific in the hours that followed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it a "significant escalation."
His passionate indictment of Russia urged a swift response from NATO. "To fire missiles at NATO territory! This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a very significant escalation. We must act."
In Warsaw, the Polish leaders convened emergency meetings.
In Brussels, NATO prepared for coming emergency sessions at military and diplomatic levels.
In Stuttgart, U.S. European Command marshalled joint planning and intelligence resources.
The spark was lit, and it appeared, a small flame was now visible and growing.
Against a backdrop of global news and talking heads pondering whether Russia had crossed a point of no return, even with sharp Moscow denials, cooler heads analyzed the data and intelligence and came to the proper conclusion.
Russia had not targeted Poland or struck inside Polish territory by accident.
By early Wednesday, the small fire was doused.
No need for NATO Article IV (Consultations on a threat to a member state) or worse, NATO Article V (Consultations that a member state was attacked and affirmed as an attack on all). With complimentary statements, Warsaw and NATO left the matter as a regretful mishap that required more investigation.
Whew! . . . That was close! Way too close for comfort!
This once deterrable war is now like nearly all wars, a complete disaster.
Over a year ago we were staring in the mirror lamenting our failed end in Afghanistan, ignoring the Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border.
Post-invasion in Ukraine, the military and humanitarian aid flowed in fits and starts.
We rightly cheered the valiant Ukrainian army and citizens repulsing the Russians.
We appropriately condemned the war crimes playing out in front of our eyes. Our approach was to use "sticks" but no "carrots."
We saw very little diplomatic maneuvering in the West besides energy and economic suicide in Europe to teach the Russians a lesson.
Did they learn?
In late Spring the big money flowed with more than $40billion authorized by Congress with the promise of more to come. Demands by Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., for transparency into such massive expenditures were muzzled.
It will be a disaster if the only visibility we see into the war expenditures are salacious headlines exposing Ukraine’s investment into FTX crypto currency. Or will that fade from our view as well?
The war rages.
Winter sets in.
Europeans cannot afford to heat themselves and lights are going out in the factories.
Yet finger pointing was the tired "go-to" by the White House.
Per National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson, "Whatever the final conclusions may be, it is clear that the party ultimately responsible for this tragic incident is Russia . . . "
Really? After Poland and NATO had calmed the crisis?
Legitimate questions abound:
- What is our strategy in Ukraine?
- Are we enabling a partner to sustain a fight?
- Are we demanding that Ukraine have a path to join NATO and EU?
- Do we seek regime change in Moscow?
- Who will look into the camera and tell us?
- Who will tell us why our forces are suddenly on the ground in Ukraine, reminiscent of our slippery descent into our own Vietnam war?
- How does the National Security team see this ending?
. . . And the dearth of leadership persists.
The D.C. "whiz-kids" have weakened our credibility and prestige with friends and foes alike. It’s not time for more sparks. Perhaps the recent discussion between U.S. and Russian intelligence chiefs indicates a glimmer of hope.
The very dangerous spark witnessed globally this week should be enough of a warning to us all that there is so much more to lose.
It's time to assess the performance of our national security leaders and determine their suitability for the challenges our nation faces.
While we are eternally grateful for the cooler heads that prevailed, and master analysts that averted disaster, will we be so lucky the next time?
We dodged a bullet — this time. Leadership from the White House is not optional.
Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt (retired) is a co-founder of Restore Liberty, a former deputy representative to NATO, a lifetime member on the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Newsmax contributor. The views presented are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or its components. Read Holt's reports — More Here.
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