On July 2 2023, Dmitry Medvedev the chief of War Materiel Production, Russian Federation, reportedly said, "I will note one thing that politicians of all kinds do not like to admit: a nuclear apocalypse is not only possible but is also quite probable."
Medvedev, a loyal Putin acolyte, also moonlights as the bombastic-NATO-provocateur-in-charge against the west.
Medvedev's threats of a nuclear weapons exchange between Russia and the collective West have dotted the timeline of this war that should have been deterred long before Putin sent the tanks.
It's long past time we sobered up and started taking him seriously, or dare we say it, at his word.
Tactical nuclear weapons are now coming to operational status in Belarus, threatening Ukraine and the bordering NATO nations, and the Kremlin is recalculating its perception of existential threat, especially after a potential coup led by the rapidly disappearing Wagner Group.
Anyone seen Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Pushing dire nuclear catastrophe warnings into the news cycle is hardly a Russian-only game.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems to be all but convinced that Russian forces have rigged the world’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaphorizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) with explosives.
Despite the counter assurances and arguments levied by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General, Rafael Grossi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Ukraine is issuing potassium iodide tablets to residents within 50km of the plant.
While leaders from Washington D.C. to Moscow wring their hands over tactical and dirty nukes, the war rages on, with battle lines barely moving while devastating losses in equipment and personnel mount.
With the NATO Summit in Vilnius just days away (July 11), both Ukraine and Russia have battlefield imperatives to achieve in order to shape how the 30 heads of state, foreign and defense ministers determine the alliance’s next steps in this dreadful war.
NATO is convening this summit to assess and discuss the most challenging security environment in its 74-year history.
While Ukraine is torn to pieces and nuclear threats ever present, unchecked migration is bubbling over in violent riots, spreading outward from France, renewed tensions in the Balkans are increasing, China is aggressively checking western power globally and the Collective West’s economic security hangs by a fraying thread.
President Zelenskyy knows Ukraine’s counter offensive must show progress and the potential to achieve “needle moving" results if the summit is to conclude with united NATO resolve and more importantly, investment, in this war.
His recent statements that there would be no negotiations with Russia unless they first exit all of Ukraine, including Crimea make his strategy clear; make the case at Vilnius for more funds and weapons, security guarantees and a clear path to membership.
Putin and the Russians have a clear understanding of the dynamics between Ukraine and a war weary west, and they are likely to capitalize on them in advance of the gathering.
Embarrassed by the Wagner betrayal and attempted coup, Russia will use the few days left before the summit to instill pause into some or all of the member delegations about staying the course in support for Ukraine.
With the very real and deadly replay of World War I grinding on in the trenches from Kherson to Kharkiv, neither side appears to be in a position to advance its goals to influence the summit.
Does the current stalemate incentivize desperate or dramatic acts in the conduct of the war to redirect NATO thinking?
Returning to the alarming nuclear disaster talk on both sides, alliance leaders must not only be mindful that every day before Vilnius could carry historic consequences, they must now plan or wargame for the "worst case" scenarios.
It is the NATO Summit itself that presents both sides with opportunity and threat.
A diplomatic front?
Perhaps, Yevgeny Prighozhin’s Wagner uprising has created an opportunity to return to a diplomatic footing.
CIA Director Bill Burns had a phone call with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Naryshkin to reaffirm the administration’s position that the U.S. had no hand in Wagner going off the rails. The Director had met with President Zelenskyy the week prior in Kiev.
Is Burns in the early stages of opening a dialogue about the war with all parties?
We better hope so.
The State Department should be rebranded the "War Department" as the NeoCon, Antony Blinken-Nuland war team continues in stride with nary a suggestion of peace talks or cease fire.
If Burns and Naryshkin have a functional relationship, maybe the last Russo-U.S. relationship left of any importance, the two men can build a path to a negotiating table.
Unless NATO has unlimited wealth and weapons to give to Ukraine, there are no other security concerns in Europe or the world to fret over, and Ukraine has unlimited soldiers to go to the front, it is high time officials, we still refer to as leaders, found the off-ramp to this war.
If NATO’s, most consequential summit yet is a failure, perhaps the angry Mr. Medvedev has it right and our nuclear disaster chances become "probable."
Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt (retired) is a co-founder of Restore Liberty, a former deputy representative to NATO, a lifetime member on the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Newsmax contributor. The views presented are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or its components. Read Gen. Holt's reports — More Here.
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