The escalation of the U.S.-China trade war adds to risks for an already-stumbling global economy, denting expectations of a stronger second half to the year.

Should U.S. tariff measures announced this month and the Chinese retaliation stay in place for two years, global GDP could be 0.3% lower by mid-2021, according to Bloomberg Economics’ estimates.

In an all-out trade war, global GDP would be lower by 0.6% -- close to $600 billion -- relative to a no trade war scenario.