Major stock indexes were mostly higher last week except for the NASDAQ indexes. They struggled for the second down week in three weeks so we will be watching to see if this could mark a trend change.

Correction Price Pattern Status for S&P 500: Last week’s action saw equity indexes rip higher ex the NASDAQ indexes. The S&P 500 remains above its February high and its August 2022 closing high of 4305.20 as it closed last week at 4536.34 from 4505.42. The S&P 500 has closed above 4500 for eight days in a row. This should be a challenging week due to the geopolitical and fiscal events listed below.

1.) Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. The FOMC Meeting began today and will conclude Wednesday. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and the Bank of Japan is Friday. Fed Speakers are in a blackout period until Thursday.

2.) Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and Service and Manufacturing PMIs, S&P Case Schiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Q2 GDP (1st Look), Durable Orders, Pending Home Sales, Personal Income, PCE Core and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

3.) Earnings Releases. Notable releases this upcoming week include: CDNS NXPI (Mon) MSFT GOOG (Tues) META KO (Wed) MA MCD (Thurs) XOM CVX PG (Fri). Key will be Microsoft and Google earnings tonight after the close.

Monday, July 24th

July S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was out on Monday and came in at 49 from 46.30 which was a plus.

July S&P Global US Services was out on Monday as well and came in last month at 52.40 from 54.40 so a bit of a pullback.

Tuesday, July 25th

May S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index was out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and fell 1.70% from -1.70% in April but beat consensus by 0.20%.

July Consumer Confidence was out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and ripped to 117 from 111.50 as consumers are more confident than what the experts thought.

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close for the period of June 28th through July 12th. During that period, the S&P 500 rose 2.18%. We expect to see some short covering.

Wednesday, July 26th

June New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 722,000 from 763,000.

The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Announcement is out at 2:00 p.m. EDT followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT with Chairman Powell.

Thursday, July 27th

Q2 GDP (First Look) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 1.60% from 2.0%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its latest interest rate announcement at 8:45 a.m. EDT.

June Durable Goods is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 1.0% from 1.70%.

June Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 0.3% from -2.70%.

Overnight the Bank of Japan is out with its latest interest rate announcement.

Friday, July 28th

June Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise tp 0.5% from 0.4%.

June PCE Prices Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.3%.

July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 72.60.
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Geoff A. Garbacz is a principal at Quantitative Partners, Inc. He writes the Good Morning Wall St newsletter. To receive a free trial click here.