The Math Behind Why Democrats May Lose in 2024

In 2020, the Biden/Harris election results included: 81,283,501 votes nationwide while Trump shows 74,223,975 votes.

However, the vast bulk of Democrat’s popular votes came from California and New York. Without California and New York, Democrats and Socialists would almost always lose the popular vote in the other 48 states.

For example, if you remove California and New York from the 2020 tally, then Trump wins the national popular vote. The total popular vote without CA and NY is 65,883,043 for Trump and 65,737,631 for Biden. Since there is absolutely no reason for a Republican to vote for president in either California or New York, the results of the national election without CA and NY are a more accurate view of the national sentiment, popular vote reality, and majority opinion in the USA.

This whole exercises also indicates the importance of third-party voters when it comes to election math.

If you focus on the Electoral College, then you have different historical scenarios. For instance, 57% of America voted against Bill and Hillary Clinton in 1992. However, Bill Clinton won 43% of the popular vote and Clinton won in an Electoral College landslide becoming president with a vast majority of American voters being against the Clintons. Bush and Perot won a combined 57% of the popular votes that year. Again, a third-party with Perot got about 19% of the national popular vote in 1992, handing a victory to democrats. [i]

As for Trump, here is what happened on 2020 Election Day:

According to NPR and Newsweek, Trump won election day in 2020 by over one million votes in 5 battleground states winning 32 states. Trump won key states on election day such as: Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Five battleground states in 2020 were flipped after election day as ballots coming in continued to be counted. [ii] [iii] Thus, after votes were counted for days after the 2020 election day was over, Biden declared victory and picked up 5 more states.

Wisconsin – Biden ended up winning Wisconsin by 20,682 votes after losing to Trump on election day. [iv]
Pennsylvania – Biden was down an almost unbelievable 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania, but won by 80,555 votes after continued ballot counting after election day was over.
Georgia – Trump was solidly in the lead at the end of the election day in Georgia by a shocking 120,000 votes, but Biden got the ballots counted after election day to win by 11,779.
Michigan – 53-45 with Trump having a lead of a stunning 295,000 votes until Biden flipped the state days after the election with uncounted ballots.
Arizona – Finally, Trump only lost AZ by 10,457 votes where there have been continued vote counting problems, technology issues and bizarre adjudication of votes. Recently, the votes that were manually adjudicated in Arizona 2022 election (approaching 400,000) went for one candidate by 64% while the same candidate only received 49.5% of the non-adjudicated votes that were not tampered with. [v] To experts, this appears to be an impossible statistical anomaly.

Now for the Sizzle – Conservatives and Republicans Might Get More Libertarian

Recently in national news, something happened that could make a big impact on national elections. In Colorado, leading libertarians have said that if the Republicans and Libertarians can agree on a candidate, they will form a coalition. Why does this matter? [vi] In 2020, Biden won the national election by a paltry 42,918 votes in 3 states: Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

1.In Wisconsin, Biden won by 20,682, but Libertarians votes in that state were larger at: 38,491

2.In Georgia, Biden won by 11,779, but the libertarian votes in GA were much greater: 62,229

3.In Arizona, Biden only won by 10,457, where Libertarian votes were a bigger number of: 51,465

Even in Pennsylvania, where Biden won by a mere 80,555 after being down 700,000 on after Election Day was over, the Libertarians in PA were roughly the same number at: 79,380.

The point is this. If Libertarians want an immediate seat at the power table, they can create a coalition with the Republicans and Conservatives which shares their values of 1) Privacy 2) Non government intervention 3) Religious rights 4) Bodily integrity [vii] 5) Efficient and effective spending and 6) Law and order. Republicans and Libertarians share many ideas such as being in favor of economic freedom, national defense, respect of property rights and the right to bear arms.

Moreover, they Republicans and Libertarians are much more aligned today on issues like “standardized drug legalization”, birth control, and marital choice. For example, here is a famous quote on marital rights, "Trump was for gay marriage before Biden, Obama and Hillary. So was Cheney. So was Bolton." Ambassador Rick Grenell.

Moreover, Hispanic, Arab, Indian, Asian, and non-white voters are historically more traditional [viii] and against child molesters and crimes such as pedophilia which may now include gender issues too. [ix] Even NBC news illustrated that “Black Women” are anti-pedophile and will come out in force to vote against alleged child molesters and those who hurt minors. [x] [xi] As for environmental issues, Conservatives and Libertarians are 100% for free competition and sustainable energy policies that may help with economic productivity and help middle class Americans with the burden of out of control inflation. [xii] [xiii]

Over the last 20 years, Ohio, Florida and Texas have become more reliable wins for Conservatives. [xiv] Thus, it is easier now for Trump or any conservative to win the Electoral College in 2024 than it ever was during the Bush and Obama years. [xv] Nationally, the Libertarians picked up a respectable 1,865,535 votes in 2020 while the Green Party only got 407,068 votes.

As the famous self help guru Dr. Covey stated, people must think about how to create a Win-Win situation, and it is time for like-minded voters with similar vested interests to form coalitions to secure victories.
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Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® is an international lawyer, speaker, educator, tax-economist, and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a ESQ accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under CHEA ACBSP and ISO 21001 standards. Mentz is also an award winning author and graduate law professor of wealth management for a top U.S. law school.

[i] 1992 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

[ii] https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency

[iii] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

[iv] US election: What happened in key battleground states on election night? | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

[v] https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/52849e48-1516-47de-bbf8-9adc95009877/downloads/Senate%20Presentation%202%20Final.pdf?

[vi] https://www.cpr.org/2023/06/22/colorado-republicans-libertarians-spoiler-candidates-agreement

[vii] Why Some Libertarians Support Vaccine Mandates but Most Against Intrusion (voanews.com)

[viii] Asian Americans, Shifting Right - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[ix] Do Immigrants Have More Conservative Sexual Attitudes Than Other College Students? - Contexts

[x][x] Why black women voters showed up (nbcnews.com)

[xi] Blacks - 70% say Homosexual Behavior a Sin and 58% Blacks Against Same Sex Marriage Poll | Pew Research Center

[xii] https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/solar/both-conservatives-and-liberals-want-a-green-energy-future-but-for-different-reasons