The landslide victory by President Trump in 2024 and second Trump presidency, supported by a sympathetic House and Senate, could bring a variety of policy shifts that might influence various sectors of the economy.

From tax reforms and deregulation to a pro-business approach that encourages energy independence and reduced government intervention, these changes could provide significant tailwinds for select stocks, industry sectors, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

This short essay explores how certain industries might benefit from key Trump policies, including lower interest rates, reduced energy costs, lower crime rates, and more restrictive immigration policies.

Key Trump Policies and Their Potential Effects on Different Sectors

1. Tax Benefits for Workers and Deregulation:
   Trump’s first presidency saw major tax enhancements and aggressive deregulation, particularly helping workers,  businesses and financial institutions to compete internationally.
   
   President Trump’s second term with his supportive Congress would likely continue these trends including faire corporate taxes and fewer restrictions on businesses which could significantly boost the bottom lines of companies to help with worker pay, productivity, and benefits, especially those in sectors such as technology, finance, and energy.
2. Lower Interest Rates:
   Biden’s interest rates and injurious debt burden policies bankrupted many families and companies costing America millions of jobs.  Trump has consistently advocated for lower interest rates, arguing that lower borrowing costs would spur economic growth.
   
   While the Federal Reserve's role in interest rate decisions is independent, a Trump administration could press for policies that encourage the Fed to keep rates low along with regulating credit card companies to reduce the APR under basic usury law. This would benefit sectors like real estate, utilities, and financials by making capital cheaper and encouraging borrowing and investment.  This could benefit auto sales, home sales, and related products and services.
3. Energy Independence and Lower Costs for Working Families:
   Trump has effectively facilitated low gasoline and heating oil costs in the past. He continues to advocate for lower costs on working families,  increased domestic energy production, including oil, natural gas, and coal, which he sees as critical to ensuring energy independence.
   
   By rolling back environmental regulations and promoting energy production, Trump’s policies could lead to lower energy costs for businesses and consumers, benefiting industries that rely on energy inputs. Biden’s hasty green policies cost every American thousands of dollars extra per year in higher gasoline, heating, utilities,  and electric bills costs over the last 4 years. Biden and Kamala’s artificially inflated energy costs also inflated costs of food, travel, tourism, automobiles, health care, education, and medicine.
   
   In some cases the cost of energy boosted public school food costs by 300%.   As interest rates come down, profits may surge in areas such as the food, cruise, airline, and travel industry as prices take time to come down while profit margin gaps expand quickly.
4. Lower Crime, Law and Order and Insurance Costs:
   Trump has championed a “law and order” agenda, promoting policies designed to reduce crime and increase security. This could benefit sectors like security services, insurance, law enforcement technology, and even real estate in areas that see increased stability and growth due to lower crime rates.
   
   Sending back the 15,000 rapists and murderers that Biden let into the USA in the last 4 years could actually reduce insurance costs nationally.  Let’s be honest, adding 15,000 extra violent criminals is like adding 3 murderers and rapists to every county of the USA and insurers keep count of these risk related stats.
5. Restricting Immigration:
   Trump’s immigration policies could affect several sectors, particularly in saving jobs of minorities, blacks and women already here. It also can affect those that rely on seasonal labor but Trump has already set aside exemptions for farming and food production.
   
   While lack of cheap labor could hurt industries like agriculture, retail, and hospitality, it could benefit domestic workers in getting off of public assistance and getting jobs and health insurance.  Immigration policy may encourage companies to invest more in technology to offset the effects of any labor shortages.

Stocks and ETFs That Could Benefit From a Trump Presidency

1. Technology Stocks (e.g., Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet):
   The Trump administration’s pro-business stance could reduce regulatory burdens on technology companies, particularly those in the AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors sectors. Tax cuts and reduced regulation would likely improve profit margins, boosting stock prices and creating funds to hire local workers.
   
   ETFs like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) would also benefit from the pro-tech policy environment. This is all contingent upon lower interest rates, less wars, and energy costs going forward. Remember, there is a proxy war with Russia right now that was created by Biden/Harris and if this war is solved, it may expand the markets and sale of tech and software worldwide.
2. Energy Stocks (e.g., ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips):
   Trump’s energy independence agenda would be positive for the energy sector, particularly for oil and natural gas companies. A friendly House and Senate would support efforts to expand drilling, reduce regulatory constraints, and promote energy exports. ETFs like the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) or the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) would benefit from this push.
3. Financial Stocks (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo):
   Lower interest rates, deregulation, and tax benefits for workers would benefit financial institutions, allowing banks to increase profitability. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is an ETF that would benefit from this scenario, as it includes a broad range of financial services companies.
4. Defense Stocks (e.g., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon):
   Trump’s strong emphasis on defense spending would likely continue, providing a boost to the defense and aerospace industries. ETFs like the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) would also perform well under Trump’s administration, as he seeks to modernize the military to maintain peace through strength.
5. Real Estate Stocks (e.g., Brookfield Properties, Prologis, Simon Property Group):
   Trump’s policies on deregulation and lower interest rates would benefit the real estate sector. Lower borrowing costs would make mortgages more affordable and drive demand for both residential and commercial properties.
   
   Less regulations would expand building across the USA and boost salaries and profits for the construction sector. ETFs like the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) would see positive momentum.
6. Consumer Discretionary Stocks (e.g., Home Depot, Nike, Amazon):
   Tax cuts and reduced regulatory burdens would allow consumers to spend more, especially in industries like retail, leisure, and travel. Stocks in the consumer discretionary sector, including Nike and Amazon, would benefit from increased consumer confidence and spending. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) would capture this growth.
7. Healthcare Stocks (e.g., UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer):
   While Trump’s policies on healthcare are a point of contention, a friendly Congress could work on solutions to reduce costs for businesses. Tax cuts and deregulation could benefit pharma companies, particularly those in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors. ETFs like the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) would be a strong pick.
8. Industrials Stocks (e.g., Caterpillar, General Electric, Union Pacific):
   Trump’s pro-business stance and commitment to infrastructure projects would benefit industrial stocks. Increased spending on infrastructure would boost demand for equipment and materials. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) would see significant growth as a result.
9. Utilities Stocks (e.g., Duke Energy, NextEra Energy, Southern Company):
   With lower interest rates, utility stocks would benefit as investors seek yield in a low-rate environment. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) would also benefit as the demand for stable, income-generating investments rises.
   
   Dividend stocks are also good for tax deferred retirement accounts as you don’t pay tax on the gains till you take your distributions and dividend stocks have upside also.
10. Materials Stocks (e.g., Dow, DuPont, Newmont Corporation):
    A pro-business environment with lower energy costs would benefit companies in the materials sector, particularly those in mining, chemicals, and manufacturing. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) is a good choice for investors looking to capture this growth.
11. Transportation Stocks (e.g., FedEx, UPS, Delta Airlines):
    Lower energy costs would reduce fuel expenses for airlines and logistics companies. The iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) would benefit from both lower energy prices and increased consumer demand.
12. Agriculture Stocks (e.g., Archer Daniels Midland, Deere & Company, Bunge):
    Trump’s policies on trade, tariffs, wars, and agricultural exports would benefit agriculture stocks, particularly those with global exposure. The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) could capitalize on global demand for food and agricultural products.
13. Precious Metals Stocks (e.g., Barrick Gold, Newmont Goldcorp, Agnico Eagle Mines):
    While Trump’s administration generally supports a strong dollar, his policies on lowering interest rates and promoting economic growth could provide a tailwind for gold and precious metals stocks as a hedge against inflation. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) would be an ETF to watch.
14. Small-Cap Stocks (e.g., iShares Russell 2000 ETF, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF):
    A pro-business environment with lower taxes and reduced regulation would be beneficial for small-cap stocks. These companies are more sensitive to tax policy changes, making them prime candidates for growth in a Trump-friendly legislative environment.
15. Travel – Profits Soar when Fuel is Cheaper

Several companies in the travel industry may benefit from lower fuel prices, including Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), United Airlines (UAL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Expedia Group (EXPE), Booking Holdings (BKNG), and Alaska Air Group (ALK). Additionally, two ETFs related to the travel sector are the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) and the Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ).

A Potential Government Investment in Online Education Companies

In addition to the sectors mentioned above, a key area that could benefit greatly from a second Trump presidency is the online education industry. Given Trump’s support for deregulation, business expansion, and workforce development, it is plausible that his administration, with the backing of a friendly Congress, might pursue investments in publicly listed educational companies, especially those offering accredited online education programs.

Companies such as Aspen University or US University Symbol ASPU, which already provide accredited online education and degree programs, could be attractive targets for government-backed acquisitions or investments aimed at creating a national platform for accessible education.

An "American Academy Online University" could be established, which would serve as a publicly subsidized, taxpaying entity providing affordable, accredited education to U.S. citizens. This initiative would align with Trump’s focus on essential worker and workforce development, as it could provide career-oriented training and degrees in high-demand sectors such as nursing,  technology, healthcare, and engineering.

The government could buy or invest in companies like Aspen University or US University to scale up and create an educational platform that rivals traditional universities, making higher education more affordable and accessible. By lowering the cost of education and offering flexible, online options, this initiative would help bridge the skills gap in the workforce, empowering individuals with the tools needed to thrive in a rapidly evolving economy.

Conclusion

A second Trump presidency, with a friendly House and Senate, could significantly shape the direction of the U.S. economy, offering substantial benefits to certain sectors of the stock market. Through policies focused on tax cuts, deregulation, energy independence, and lower interest rates, and less war, there are many companies in technology, energy, finance, healthcare, defense, and real estate could see substantial growth.

 Additionally, a possible government-backed initiative to invest in online education companies like Aspen University or US University could create a transformative American Academy Online University, expanding access to accredited education and further driving economic growth.

Finally, ETFs that track these sectors may provide investors with a diversified way to benefit from the pro-business, lower-cost environment that a Trump presidency could usher in. The combination of these policies could lead to increased corporate profits, a boost in consumer spending, and overall economic growth that would resonate across various industries.

Disclaimer Note: The author invests in many ETFs and Index Funds and either would invest or does invest in all of the mentioned stocks, ETFs and funds. The author gladly promotes Blue-Chip stocks and ETFs and funds that hold Blue-Chip style portfolios. While some of the stocks mentioned are not Blue-Chip, these are just ideas based on the past experience with the first Trump presidency. Please consult with a locally licensed professional before making any important decision in finance, law, investments or health etc.

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Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® is the first in the USA to rank as a Top 50 Influencer & Thought Leader in: Management, PM, HR, FinTech, Wealth Management, and B2B according to Onalytica.com and Thinkers360.com. George Mentz JD MBA CILS is a CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ®, global speaker - educator, tax-economist, international lawyer and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a EU accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under standards of the: US Dept of Education, ACBSP, ISO 21001, ISO 991, ISO 29993, QAHE, ECLBS, and ISO 29990 standards. Mentz is also an award-winning author and award winning graduate law professor of wealth management of one of the top 30 ranked law schools in the USA.Mentzenborg is just a term of art to describe the theory and process by George Mentz JD MBA ChE. CWM is for Chartered Wealth Manager ® and ChE Chartered Economist ® is a credential for economics professionals.