While strategists and pundits fall over each other predicting how the U.S. presidential race will play out in markets, the stock market itself has a clear-cut view on which industry is most at risk: the banks.

Financial institutions come up far more often than any other industry when share price correlation is plotted for sensitivity to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s election odds. Among the 100 stocks in the S&P 500 with the strongest ties, companies from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to Progressive Corp., are moving the most based on politics. Their clear preference is for Trump.

“There are things Democrats want to do that could hurt these companies and things Republicans want to do that will help them, and that’s why these correlations are so strong,” said Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners in Washington. “Financials are not priced for the event that you get a Democrat sweep. Markets are paying more attention to Fed policy and not enough to the election.”

It’s not like bank shareholders need more drama this year. Financial stocks began 2016 by plunging 18 percent over six weeks, dragged down by concerns a recession was about to steamroll their lending business. Scandals, fines and firings have dogged the group since the bottom in February, with volatility cresting after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union sent banks down 8 percent in two days.

Heavy correlation to the candidates is something else to process for bulls and bears as the Federal Reserve considers higher interest rates and signs of inflation emerge in the economy. Flows into and out of bank shares have been among the heaviest in the S&P 500 this year, with a net $300 billion pulled from the largest financial exchange-traded fund in 2016, the most since 2011.

Financials For Trump

While pretty much every industry has demonstrated an occasional preference for one party or another during the election season, none has been as tied to poll numbers on the RealClearPolitics website as financial companies. They’re the only ones that have moved in lockstep with the Republican’s odds while also moving inversely to Clinton’s numbers, suggesting investors believe the biggest difference between the candidates’ political agendas may be how they deal with Wall Street.

Banks, online brokerages and diversified financial companies make up 20 of the top 50 companies most tied to Trump’s numbers, almost double the next most common group, technology stocks. Morgan Stanley sits atop the list, with a correlation of 0.68 to Trump’s polls since March, followed by E*Trade Financial Corp. and Fifth Third Bancorp, with correlations of at least 0.62.

At the same time, many of those companies move inversely with Clinton’s chances. In the top 100 most polarized stocks, financial shares on average have a correlation of negative 0.24 with Clinton and a positive correlation of 0.41 with Trump. That spread is bigger than in any other group.

“If you think Hillary wins but Republicans keep the house, it is trickier because more factors come into play given how wide the polls have become,” said Michael Purves, chief global strategist at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Connecticut. “You want to be thoughtful around big banks, especially those most exposed to more Dodd-Frank.”

Clinton Correlations

Outside of financials and the handful of chipmakers that trade with Trump, the most discernible correlation between the election and industries are ones associated with a victory by Clinton. Among the 100 companies most correlated to politics, 69 are because of moderate to strong inverse relationships with her numbers, suggesting the effects of a Clinton administration on specific companies is more easily interpreted or that polls represent a stronger signal about her chances.

Of the top 50 stocks most closely tied to Clinton’s polls, 21 fall in the consumer discretionary category, and the correlations are, on average, stronger than the companies that stand to benefit from a Trump election.

Topping the list are retailers like Nordstrom Inc. and Tiffany & Co. and automotive stocks including Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and BorgWarner Inc. The two groups have traded with positive correlations of at least 0.73 and 0.67 to the RealClearPolitics numbers.

Not all of the equity market has shown a clear preference for a candidate. Some of the strongest relationships between stocks and polling show up in industrial shares, where strong correlations exist both for Trump’s and Clinton’s numbers. A possible reason: Both candidates will expand federal spending in an effort to jump-start the economy.

“Beneficiaries of increased fiscal spending, such as construction and materials, have already rallied in anticipation of greater infrastructure spending post-election,” analysts at BlackRock Inc. wrote in an Oct. 25 note. “Yet this outperformance may be premature, as new fiscal programs take time to trickle down to corporate bottom lines.”