Goldman Sachs commodity analysts have been saying for weeks that gold will reach $1,050 an ounce by year-end.

But they apparently have a higher target for the near term. In a report obtained by Barron's, Goldman strategists say the $1,200 level represents "a good estimate of the floor price for gold."

Gold futures for December delivery rose 1 percent to settle at $1,305.30 an ounce late Friday on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since July 17. The metal Thursday touched $1,289.40, the lowest since June 19. A move to $1,200 would represent about an 8 percent fall from Friday's level, and a move to $1,050 would constitute a 20 percent drop.

Editor's Note: Seniors Scoop Up Unclaimed $20,500 Checks? (See if You qualify)

Goldman analysts see $1,200 as the downside limit for now, because it represents the 90th percentile of all-in sustaining costs in the gold-mining sector. That means it's the level below which more producers must consider cutting their gold production.

And a cut in output, of course, gives support to gold prices. So declines below $1,200 will "generally [be] short-lived, [except in] times of extreme declines in demand," the Goldman analysts say.

Apparently they expect demand to plummet later this year, given the $1,050 target.

Gold rebounded from a five-week low Friday amid the intense turmoil in Ukraine and the Mideast. That sent investors scurrying to safe-haven assets.

"When you see schools shelled in Gaza and heavy artillery fire from Russia and Ukraine, people are very nervous, and you can’t blame them," Peter Thomas, a senior vice president at Zaner Group, told Bloomberg. "People are going to buy gold."

Editor's Note: Seniors Scoop Up Unclaimed $20,500 Checks? (See if You qualify)

Related Stories:

• CNBC: Five Ways to Invest in Gold
• World Gold Council: It's Time to Add Gold to Your Portfolio
• Mark Hulbert: Gold Bulls Are Way Too Complacent for Their Own Good
• Analysts: Gold-Miner Stock Rally Presages Gains for Gold Itself