Consumer spending will bounce back this year on job-market strength and as people feel more assured that gasoline prices won’t jump, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

So far this year, shoppers have defied forecasts for a spending boom following the collapse in oil prices since last summer. Snowstorms and cold weather explain less than half of the disappointing retail sales data since December, the New York-based bank said.

“Instead of providing a widely expected boost to consumer spending, lower energy prices have apparently turned up in a higher saving rate,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman, said in a May 19 report obtained by Newsmax Finance. “The puzzling lack of impact so far is likely explained in part by consumers’ initial skepticism that low gasoline prices would last. Only over the last couple of months have consumers come to believe that lower prices are here to stay.”

Consumers in May expected gas prices to rise by 50 cents a gallon five years from now, according to a monthly survey of sentiment by the University of Michigan. That’s down from the $1 increase they expected in the January survey.

The bank analyzed several economic models to determine that lower gasoline prices had not shown up in first-quarter spending, as reflected in prior estimates of gross domestic product. Goldman forecasts the rise in consumption to be gradual in coming quarters.

“Lower gas prices should provide an eventual boost, and consumer fundamentals remain solid,” Hatzius said the report co-authored by economists David Mericle and Karen Reichgott. “Consumer confidence remains near recovery highs and disposable income growth – especially labor income growth – has been strong.”

He said it’s too early to say that consumer psychology has changed to the point that the savings rate will remain elevated.

Savings data are “noisy and subject to revision,” Hatzius said. “With layoff risk still very low, income growth expectations recovering and the ratio of household wealth to disposable income near historical highs, we see little basis for expecting a higher saving rate.”

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