Tags: Morningstar | economy | data | weather

Morningstar Analysts: 'Reality' Is 'Economic Activity Not Booming'

By    |   Tuesday, 31 March 2015 07:40 AM EDT

A growing number of analysts are starting to question the strength of the U.S. economy, and you can add Morningtar's Robert Johnson and Roland Czerniawski to the list.

"Following [earlier] jubilation about the U.S. Federal Reserve reducing economic forecasts and not immediately raising rates, the reality of economic activity not booming began to set in" financial markets last week, they write on Morningstar.com.

"The big news was that there was now more data to sharpen first-quarter economic forecasts, including a disappointing durable goods report." Durable goods orders dropped 1.4 percent, while existing home sales rose only 1.2 percent in February from January.

"The recent data in terms of weather and energy-related investments have not been positive," the analysts say. Many economists expect growth to slow further this quarter after totaling just 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

"Like 2014, we suspect the weather-related issues will cause at least some snapback in spring and summer," Johnson and Czerniawski write. "However, the slow start may make it difficult for the economy to hit 3 percent" growth this year.

Meanwhile, only six years after the end of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s some experts are worried another one may be on its way.

Some are "warning that the global community has failed to learn the lessons of the Greek debt crisis — or even of Argentina's default in 2001, the consequences of which are still being contested furiously in courts on both sides of the Atlantic," writes The Guardian's Heather Stewart.

Some of the concern stems from the soaring dollar, plunging oil prices and the Federal Reserve's preparation to raise interest rates.

The dollar has reached multi-year highs against a range of currencies in recent weeks, oil prices have hit six-year lows and many economists expect a Fed rate move in September.

"We're going to have another financial crisis," Ann Pettifor, director of Policy Research in Macroeconomics, tells Stewart.

"Brazil's already in great trouble with the strength of the dollar; I dread to think what's happening in South Africa; then there's Malaysia. We're back to where we were, and that for me is really frightening," Pettifor adds.

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A growing number of analysts are starting to question the strength of the U.S. economy, and you can add Morningtar's Robert Johnson and Roland Czerniawski to the list.
Morningstar, economy, data, weather
356
2015-40-31
Tuesday, 31 March 2015 07:40 AM
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