Tags: Siegel Up at Night Fearing Catastrophes

Siegel Up at Night Fearing Catastrophes

Thursday, 06 January 2011 11:44 AM EST

Influential economist Jeremy J. Siegel says he remains a long-term bull on the stock market, but he points to several “scary scenarios” that keep him awake at night.

Siegel is no longer worried about a real estate-induced crisis. But the European financial crisis will likely result in some countries defaulting on their debt and could even lead to a breakup of the euro currency area, Siegel writes in Kiplinger’s Personal Finance. However, he believes disruptions to the market would probably be short-term.

Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. His seminal book “Stocks for the Long Run” demonstrated that equity stocks outperform all other investment classes over time.

Siegel says another worry keeping him up at night is the massive debt of state and local governments, with mutual funds holding more than $850 billion in municipal debt. But he thinks the federal government would likely step in to deal with repercussions from threatened defaults.

Editor's Note: Get a free copy of David Skarica’s "The Great Super Cycle" — Read More Click Here Now.

As for the massive federal debt, Siegel writes that most of the current deficit is due to the recession and will shrink when the economy recovers.

In the long run, he argues that Medicare is the biggest concern. “Fixing it will require a fundamental reworking of our entitlement programs, but that won’t threaten stocks in the near future,” Siegel says.

He says the one scenario that “keeps me up at night” is the threat of a terrorist attack, particularly a nuclear attack on a major city.

That would result not only in a great loss of lives and property, but also extraordinary measures to prevent another attack, which would restrict freedom and increase government regulation — bad news for stocks and private enterprise.

One other note: Siegel observes that the financial crisis hasn’t resulted in a backlash against capitalism. Rather, recent elections indicate a public rejection of the notion that government can run the economy better than private enterprise.

The U.S. market has always surmounted crises, he adds. “I see no reason the future should be any different.”

Editor's Note: David Skarica’s "The Great Super Cycle" reveals five global investments that will rise with inflation and be protected against a dollar devaluation — Read More — Click Here Now. 

© 2025 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.


StreetTalk
Influential economist Jeremy J. Siegel says he remains a long-term bull on the stock market, but he points to several scary scenarios that keep him awake at night. Siegel is no longer worried about a real estate-induced crisis. But the European financial crisis will...
Siegel Up at Night Fearing Catastrophes
387
2011-44-06
Thursday, 06 January 2011 11:44 AM
Newsmax Media, Inc.

Sign up for Newsmax’s Daily Newsletter

Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox.

(Optional for Local News)
Privacy: We never share your email address.
Join the Newsmax Community
Read and Post Comments
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
 
Get Newsmax Text Alerts
TOP

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved