Tom Cruise has generated more than $4.2 billion at U.S. box offices, but he has never starred in a film that has produced a $100 million opening weekend.
Analysts are predicting "Top Gun: Maverick" will achieve domestic ticket sales between $98 million and $125 million.
"At this point, I'm seeing very little reason not to expect a domestic opening weekend well over $100 million, a mark that the film will probably reach in its first three days," Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com,
tells Fortune magazine. "We're not just talking about a new career best for Mr. Cruise — but also potentially some Memorial Day weekend records that may be going down.
"At this point, even the most conservative numbers for 'Top Gun' just don't feel like they're enough. This very much feels like a 'welcome back to the movies' type of experience," Robbins says.
If this latest "Top Gun" in the series, which Cruise began in 1980, does bring in those kinds of numbers, it would beat the highest-grossing Memorial Day record, 2007's "Pirate of the Caribbean: At World's End," which earned a total of $115 million in its first three days.
To date in 2022, the biggest movie opening has been Marvel Studios' "Doctor Strange: The Multiverse of Madness," which grossed $185 million in U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Walt Disney Co.
Cruise Control
Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, says a main reason why Cruise has not had a $100 million opening weekend in his career thus far — his 2005 "War of the Worlds," which earned $64.8 million is his most profitable — is because Cruise has pursued films with "drawing power over the long haul."
"To that end, he has spent the last decade collaborating with great creative partners to produce some of the most entertaining movies to ever hit the multiplex."
Paramount Pictures pulled out all of the stops in producing "Top Gun: Maverick,"
paying as much as $11,374 per hour to the Navy for using F/A-18 Super Hornets in the adventure film.
"Top Gun: Maverick" is being theatrically released in the U.S. Friday, May 27, for the Memorial Day weekend.
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