If former President Donald Trump is re-elected in November, the U.S. dollar would rally 3%, according to foreign exchange strategists at Barclays Plc, Bloomberg reports.

Themistoklis Fiotakis and other strategists attributed this to Trump’s proposals for more tariffs, economic stimulus, and lower contributions to NATO.

“A number of candidate Trump’s flagship proposals across trade, fiscal and foreign policy amount to a structural break with the past, with potentially far-reaching implications for FX markets and the dollar,” the Barclays Thursday client note said.

A new “incarnation of U.S. exceptionalism” through Trump’s trade proposals would continue to support the dollar.

If a blanket 10% tariff on all imports to the U.S. was not met with counter charges, the dollar’s exchange rate would increase by 2% to 3%, Barclays said.

For every 1% increase in gross domestic product, the dollar would also rise, by 1% to 1.5%, the strategists predict.

If the U.S. were to put a tariff of 60% on China’s imports, the yuan’s nominal effective exchange rate would decline 3%.

Regardless of whether Trump or President Joe Biden wins the election, Barclays sees relations between the U.S. and China to continue to be strained.

“A weaker NATO commitment is also dollar positive via higher risk premia in other (mainly European) currencies,” Barclays said.