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Tags: FiveThirtyEight | Trump | Win | White House | Lose | Popular Vote

FiveThirtyEight: How Trump Could Lose — And Still Win

FiveThirtyEight: How Trump Could Lose — And Still Win

(AP Images)

Thursday, 15 September 2016 11:15 AM EDT

A respected election-analysis blog says there is an "unusually high chance" that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote in November.

"[It's] basically, Democrats' version of the apocalypse, David Wasserman writes in a column published Thursday at FiveThirtyEight.com.

Wasserman says the FiveThirtyEight polls-only model "posits a 6.1 percent chance of Trump winning the Electoral College while losing the popular, and a 1.5 chance of the reverse outcome."

"But that's not so remote, either, and if the national ballot were ever to tighten further, both 'crazy' scenarios' odds could rise," he says.

"The result? Clinton would carry the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points. However, Trump would win the Electoral College with 280 votes by holding all 24 Romney states and flipping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine's 2nd Congressional District from blue to red."

"And the real disparity between the electoral and popular votes could be larger, because this model doesn't even factor in Trump's Mormon problem.

"Don't get me wrong: This scenario is still very unlikely. But its potential to plunge an already fraught election into absolute chaos means it shouldn't be discounted, either."

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Headline
A respected election-analysis blog says there is an "unusually high chance" that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote in November.
FiveThirtyEight, Trump, Win, White House, Lose, Popular Vote
193
2016-15-15
Thursday, 15 September 2016 11:15 AM
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