The nation's pollsters, who are still coming under fire after they predicted Donald Trump to with the Iowa GOP caucuses Monday, are facing even more trouble in New Hampshire, where voters are known for staying undecided until they head to the polls next week.
"These people really are volatile," Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray
told Politico. "They really are undecided. Even if they pick a candidate today or tomorrow, they can change their mind."
Polls after the Iowa caucuses are showing that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who placed third in Iowa, is trending upward in New Hampshire, where Trump remains on top of the polls. However, he's facing a challenge from other candidates who are pushing for their own place behind Trump, including Sen. Ted Cruz, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, all of whom are campaigning hard in the Granite State.
And with the wide number of candidates to choose from, the public is undecided and "moving around from candidate to candidate," Dante Scalia, an assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire who has written a book about the New Hampshire primary, told Politico. "I think if you called the same person in two successive nights, you might get two different answers of who they like."
And such late-deciders are leading pollsters to lower their expectations about how their numbers will pan out next week.
"We expect way too much of polls, more than they could possibly deliver," said University of New Hampshire pollster Andy Smith. "We're asking people what they plan to do, and they really don't know."
But there is a problem for pollsters who wait until the last minute. Many news organizations commissioning the polls want the numbers early, and some pollsters won't release polls on Election Day for fear of influencing voters.
"The public wants to know what the score is," Smith said. "But I think it behooves public opinion researchers that we try to tell the public the real story of what's going on."
New Hampshire's open primary system can also affect how polls play out. Unaffiliated voters are allowed to vote in either party's primary, and can effectively swing an election at the last minute.
For example, in 2000, many undeclared voters backed Arizona Sen. John McCain over George W. Bush, but eight years later, independents were more likely to vote Democratic ballots for then-Sen. Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, and while Obama won the Iowa caucuses, Clinton won in New Hampshire.
People in New Hampshire also also becoming weary of the robocalls and polls themselves, and some are not answering their phones.
There is one bright spot for pollsters, though. New Hampshire has a historically high voter turnout, which makes it easier to be sure they are asking voters on their surveys.
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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