Politico's political insiders panel is predicting bad news for Republican front-runner Donald Trump, with more than half of those participating saying they don't think he can win the vote in early states.
"What they're saying is that a lot of what we're seeing in polls now is what they call 'whiskey courage,'" Politico chief political reporter Mike Allen told
MSNBC's "Morning Joe" program Friday. "It's easy to say you're for Donald Trump at the minute."
The percentage in both Iowa and New Hampshire were almost the same with 58 percent of Iowa Republicans and 61 percent in New Hampshire saying Trump would not win in their states.
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"Trump is generating a lot controversy, but he is not taken seriously as a potential president," a New Hampshire Republican told Politico. "I have heard from many people who say, ‘I love him! Love what he’s saying!’ But when I ask if they would really vote for him, they say, ‘hell no.’"
Another voter from New Hampshire said that to beat Hillary Clinton, a candidate will have to "at least draw with Republican women. And he [Trump] has destroyed his chances with women."
Meanwhile, in Iowa, people are "still thinking that [Wisconsin Gov.] Scott Walker is going to come back," Allen told the early morning show, and in New Hampshire, "there's a huge scramble."
"Jeb [Bush] has to do well, [John] Kasich has to do well, [Chris] Christie has to do well, Marco [Rubio] depending on if he doesn't get South Carolina," said Allen.
In the bipartisan survey, insiders were less than flattering about Trump's status and reputation, Politico reported Friday.
"Many Trump enthusiasts are showing up for free food and verbal fireworks at his events, but won’t sit through a precinct caucus," one Iowa Republican said, when asked whether Trump would win if the early-state contests were held today.
And a New Hampshire Republican, using the "whiskey courage" analogy, said that most of Trump's current supporters "will sober up enough to realize they aren't going to walk into a ballot booth and vote for a misogynist jerk."
Washington Post political columnist Bob Costa, also on the "Morning Joe" show Friday, agreed that Walker has an appeal because "slow and steady wins the race," but still the campaign is "nervous" because of the rise of Trump and of retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
"In New Hampshire, the big story is [Ohio Gov. John] Kasich," Costa said. "The way Kasich is rising there is as a [John] McCain-type figure doing town halls, it's getting attention in that state."
Show host Joe Scarborough said he believes Trump's numbers will continue to decline.
"If you asked that question a month ago, Mike, I'm sure it would have been 80-20 he can't," Scarborough told Allen. "Now it's 60-40. A month from now I suspect even insiders, if Trump is still holding, will hold a pole position and say there's a 50-50 shot. You see those numbers move just as you see his approval ratings inside the Republican party move up."
Allen said the next big question is whether Trump "will start to take his candidacy seriously is the next big question," and whether he can convert his early support to a successful campaign.
"Maybe in his mind and in a lot of people's minds this candidacy was a joke at first," said Allen. "He's clearly caught on and clearly tapped in to something. Now, his campaign manager, his political director are flying around the country hiring people in early states. They say they're going to start to do policy papers."
The news also was not good for Rick Perry, Allen said,
as the insiders polled said they believe the former Texas governor will be the first to drop out of the race.
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They say that this week we found out he wasn't paying his staff and just hasn't gotten that second look that he was hoping for," said Allen, noting that Trump has insulted Perry by saying he "put on glasses to make himself look smart," and according to the survey respondents, "people [can] see through the glasses."
Joe Biden's possible political future also looks dim, Allen said, with 94 percent of Democrats in the New Hampshire survey saying there's "no chance" for him, and 78 percent of Iowa Democrats feeling the same way.
"He is starting way too late, and doesn’t have time to build a ground organization," a New Hampshire Democrat told Politico. "Also, while people like him, he’s never taken off here. Would put the kibosh to [Martin] O’Malley, however, only room for one Irish American guy from mid-Atlantic states. "
There are two reasons why late-comers like Biden would have trouble defeating Clinton.
"There's two reasons why," said Allen. "Of course it's late. Secretary Clinton has this incredible organization. But the other point that they made to us is there's no lane for us for him. He won't feel the burn on the left. They're too similar."
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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