Al-Qaida and Islamic State jihadists could launch a "mass-casualty attack" on U.S. soil if the Obama administration doesn't alter course on its strategy to defeat the terrorists, a conservative think-tank report warns.
The analysis by the
American Enterprise Institute, charges "American leaders still have not recognized the nature of this war and have a dangerous misconception of the threat."
"Al-Qaida and/or ISIS will carry out a mass-casualty attack against the homeland: it is a question of not if, but rather when," the report says. "Even more worrisome is our assessment that, if we fail to stop the extremists from taking territory and undermining states, al-Qaida or ISIS will obtain weapons of mass destruction; then it will be too late to act."
According to the AEI report, under current Obama administration strategy and military and diplomatic efforts, the terrorist groups could control "at least twice as much territory and population — in Iraq, Yemen, North Africa (especially Libya), the Sinai, and Syria — and with an army of regular and irregular fighters at least twice as large within two years."
"While victory in the long term is inevitable because the Muslim world will eventually reject the hateful ideology of al-Qaida and ISIS, our challenge is to minimize the damage to our own people, our way of life, and the world and to avoid the calamities that could befall us if these groups or their allies acquire weapons of mass destruction," the report warns.
"Success requires a new grand, strategic approach that views the enemy as the global, interconnected system that it is. Fourteen years of attempting to decapitate al-Qaida have failed — the group now has greater military power and territory than ever before," the report adds.
Still, a flood of U.S. boots on the ground is not the answer, the report advises; a better strategy would include a focus on training local partner forces to conduct counterinsurgency campaigns and work with civilian populations — and the U.S. needs more troops for the counterinsurgency training, the report says.
"Insurgencies have a tendency to flare up repeatedly, even after being suppressed with all the skill at the command of the counterinsurgents, while civil wars are inherently generational conflicts," the report said.
"This fact might mean that the U.S. and its partners will have to leave sizable numbers of troops on the ground throughout the world, perhaps for decades, as we had to do following World War II and the Korean War."
The report called jihadist ideology "the center of gravity" for terrorist groups and U.S. military and diplomatic officials should seek to "empower local religious rivals" such as Sufi Muslims to undermine al-Qaida and ISIS ideology.
The report also advised against working with U.S. adversaries — including Russia, Iran, and Syria — to combat the Islamic State, which would be "wasteful" and "strategically counterproductive."
"Campaigns should be designed in part to build American and allied confidence that success is possible while acknowledging our commitment must be sustained over time," the report said.
"Our allies, in particular, must be convinced we will not again leave them in the lurch."
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