Hollywood PR Guru: Trump Needs Stronger Appeal to Win

Donald Trump still appears to believe he can win a significant share of the African-American vote. To me, this brings to mind Oscar Wilde's characterization of second marriages as "a triumph of hope over experience."

Historically, since 1980, Republican presidential candidates have averaged only about 9 percent of the African-American vote.

Trump suggests he will change that. In mid-August, during a campaign swing through Michigan, he predicted if he wins in November he will be re-elected with 95 percent of the black vote.

Said Trump: "The inner cities of our country have been run by the Democratic Party for more than 50 years. Their policies have produced only poverty, joblessness, failing schools and broken homes. It's time to hold Democratic politicians accountable for what they have done to these communities. At what point do we say enough?"

But despite Trump's razor-sharp critique of Democrats' inner-city policies, I expect him to fall well short of the 9 percent level of African-American support Republican presidential candidates usually attain. Let me explain why.

Trump's role at the vanguard of the birther movement struck blacks as so delegitimizing to the first African-American president it created what I call, based on my long career in public relations, a "negative emotional override."

What that means is Trump has crossed the threshold beyond which strong emotions make it almost impossible for most African-Americans to support him. Some polls show Trump's disapproval rating among African-American voters at close to 90 percent.

Don't get me wrong: Trump may be justified in saying African-Americans have nothing to lose by voting for a Republican presidential candidate. But coming from Trump, African-American voters are likely to find that point unpersuasive.

You don't have to be Freud or Einstein to understand why. Appearing to delegitimize one of the greatest achievements in black voters' lifetimes – the election of a man with a multi-racial background to the presidency of the United States – created a huge emotional chasm for African-American voters. The negative emotional override – that is, the point at which people are no longer going to listen – is simply too strong.

Of course, in mid-September, Trump acknowledged "President Barack Obama was born in the United States."

But after years of suggesting otherwise, that one terse statement won't mollify Trump's negative image in the African-American community.

If Trump came out tomorrow with policies clearly more favorable to blacks than Hilary Clinton's – and many fine economists already believe he has – most African-Americans would not listen to him. As far as they are concerned, Trump has already jumped the shark.

So what should Trump do to bolster his chances between now and Election Day?

Here are my thoughts:

• Try to be seen with crowds that are not all white. Hold a fund-raiser in Harlem, for instance. Be photographed with African-Americans. That probably won't influence many African-Americans – but it could soothe urban and suburban whites who want their president to represent all Americans, not just people who happen to look like them.
• In the remaining debates, instead of asking, a la Reagan, if you are better off than you were before, Trump should say: "Ladies and gentlemen, close your eyes and ask yourself: 'Who do you think is more likely to make the necessary changes to our broken system: A career politician for the last 30 years, or a business guy you probably remember firing people on TV, including celebrities?'"
• He needs to draw a sharper contrast in the next debate by painting Hillary as a creature of a political establishment that has failed to protect Americans' interests. "Ladies and gentlemen," he might ask, "let me see if I understand this correctly. We have a woman on this stage who has been part of the system for 35 years, and here's what she's asking you to believe: In year 36, somehow it's all going to work out fine. Really?!?"
• He must drive home the point Hillary Clinton has never made the trains run on time. "Ladies and gentlemen," he could say, "as you know I'm a billionaire many times over and I've created a big business. I've hired many, many, many people. Based on her record, I wouldn't hire Hillary Clinton to be a mid-level manager at a Taco Bell at my resort in Atlantic City. And by the way, if you were running my business, you wouldn't either."

It is painfully obvious Hillary is a flawed candidate. Her "basket of deplorables" remark was a horrible unforced error. The bar Trump needs to hurdle, to convince the all-important swing voters, remains historically low.

But in the end, Trump must remember people make decisions for both logical and emotional reasons.

In my experience, it is as if inside every human head there is an arm-wrestling match going on between the emotional part of the brain and the logical part of the brain. To recapture his momentum in the campaign's closing days, Trump needs to hone his emotional appeal.

In my experience, when it comes to important decisions, the emotional part of the thought process prevails about 80 percent of the time.

Indeed, that might be something for Mr. Trump to ponder the next time he is tempted to fire off a tweet at 3 a.m.

Michael Levine is the PR agent to the stars. A frequent Newsmax contributor, he has represented 58 Oscar winners and 34 Grammy Award winners, including Charlton Heston.