Billionaire developer Donald Trump's recent political stumbles are having very little effect on his commanding lead in next week's delegate-rich New York primary, according to a new
NBC News/Marist poll.
The results:
- Trump, 54 percent
- John Kasich, 21 percent
- Ted Cruz, 18 percent
The results, writes CNBC's John Harwood, raise a lot of doubts about the recent thinking that Trump has somehow lost momentum because of his stumbles on abortion and other issues.
Trump needs 1,237 delegates for a first-ballot nomination at the Republican convention in Cleveland this summer. Even if he falls short of that number, 64 percent of fellow New Yorkers say Trump should be nominated if he enters the convention with more delegates than anyone else, according to the poll.
"Trump's robust showing augurs well for his chance on April 19 to grab the lion's share of New York's 95 delegates — the second-biggest prize so far in the primary season after Florida," Harwood writes. "Polls have also shown Trump with double-digit leads in Pennsylvania and Maryland, the two biggest states with primaries on April 26."
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (who was a U.S. senator from New York) has the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic voters, compared to 41 percent for Bernie Sanders.
If Clinton can win New York, that would break Sanders' hot streak at next week's primary in the Empire State, after the Vermont senator won eight of the last nine contests.
Roughly one third (30 percent) of likely Democratic voters who back Sanders say that they wouldn’t vote for Clinton in a general election, while 15 percent of Clinton backers would not vote for Sanders.
The poll of 259 likely Republican primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. The poll of 557 likely Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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