Scientists are warning that increasing evidence suggests that the highly contagious and potentially deadly coronavirus will not disappear entirely.
Many nations have tried achieving herd immunity to fight the virus by increasing the numbers of infected people who may become immune to COVID-19.
Once a majority of the people in a country are immune, the disease can’t spread as readily. But in reaching that herd immunity goal, millions of people would die, say experts.
Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, a leading epidemiologist from Sydney, Australia, told Science Alert that the entire notion of beating the pandemic with herd immunity is absurd.
“All this is simply nonsense. Herd immunity without a vaccine is by definition not a preventative measure,” he said, adding that to allow 60% to 70% or more of your population to become infected with a potentially deadly disease is not prevention.
While a vaccine could help prevent the disease and contribute to herd immunity, it won’t wipe it out entirely, experts told NPR.
“I think it’s going to be with us probably forever at this point,” Devi Sridhar, a professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told NPR. As far as encouraging people to get sick with COVID-19 to boost herd immunity, Sridhar said succinctly, “Nobody wants to be part of the herd.”
From a practical standpoint, pursuing herd immunity would completely drain the healthcare system, according to NPR.
“It’s unlikely we can achieve natural herd immunity without completely using up physical and human resources,” said Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious disease physician at Boston Medical Center.
And there’s more bad news. Several studies have demonstrated that the antibodies produced when a person gets infected wane after a short time, indicating that even a vaccine won’t offer complete immunity for the coronavirus.
“People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr. Katie Doores, one of the chief antibody researchers.
The new evidence suggests that people can get repeatedly infected with the virus, much like they do with the common cold. It also suggests limitations for the effectiveness of a potential vaccine, Doores said.
“Infection tends to give you the best-case scenario for an antibody response, so if your infection is giving you antibody levels that wane in two to three months, the vaccine will do potentially the same thing,” she told The Guardian. “People may need boosting and one shot may not be enough.”
Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College London, a leading expert in shaping public policies and processes to prevent the spread of infectious diseases, told NPR:
“If immunity is only temporary, then the pandemic will not ‘end.’”
To date, the only success stories have come from nations that suppressed the virus with quick lockdowns and very cautious reopening. Scotland, for example, is pursuing a “zero COVID” strategy, said Sridhar, that is working very well.
“It’s painful process and it does take time, but there are ways you can stop it.”
Lynn C. Allison ✉
Lynn C. Allison, a Newsmax health reporter, is an award-winning medical journalist and author of more than 30 self-help books.
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