The final polls hours before the Iowa caucuses commenced Monday indicated the same likely outcome for Hawkeye State Republicans.
According to the Emerson Poll released Sunday night, Donald Trump led handily with 55% among likely caucusgoers, followed by Nikki Haley at 21% and Ron DeSantis at 15%.
Emerson's results echoed those of The Des Moines Register's venerable poll a day before, showing Trump 48%, Haley 20%, and DeSantis 16%. In both surveys, billionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson registered in single digits.
But some observers are beginning to look at the possible effects on the caucus of an unexpected X factor: the weather. With a record 22 inches of snow at the Des Moines Airport over the weekend, 45 mile-per-hour winds, and subzero temperatures continuing into Monday, candidates canceled several caucus events.
Trump did, however, hold his final rally in Indianola on Sunday, where the crowd was warmed up by much-loved former University of Iowa wrestling coach Dan Gable and British politician Nigel Farage.
As to whether this modern record low of temperature and high of snow will affect turnout and outcome, there are differing opinions.
"Most people will tell you it will have a big impact," former Polk County (Des Moines) GOP Chair Kim Schmett told Newsmax. "But there is still plenty of time to clear roads and parking lots and people will be out and moving to get groceries, gas, and run errands. Iowans are used to cold weather. It's ice and snow that keeps us home."
It would appear Trump has the most to gain or lose from the seemingly unprecedented bad weather. Those committed to the former president are the ones most likely to defy snow and cold to show up for the quadrennial ritual of voting in a caucus throughout the Hawkeye State's 99 counties.
But Trump himself seemed to recognize the 50% showing the polls – and many supporters say he will reach Monday – might not be achievable. As he told his "caucus captains" at the Hotel Fort Des Moines: "There seems to be something about 50, I don't know if we break 50."
"Many analysts concluded DeSantis and Haley are strong in Polk, Story, Dallas, Warren, Madison, Linn, Johnson, and the city of Davenport, and Trump everywhere else," veteran Johnson County (Sioux City) Republican leader Bill Keetell, who spoke to us as he was setting up his own caucus early Monday morning. "I suspect this analysis underrates the influence of [pro-family leader and DeSantis supporter] Bob Vander Plaats and [Rep.] Randy Feenstra in northwest Iowa, but who knows?
"I predict only for Johnson County," Keetell added. "I think the Iowa City precincts, including the University precincts, will go for either Haley or DeSantis, except for the very Democrat precincts which will probably go for Trump; however, I think the rural and small-town precincts and townships will be for Trump. We shall see."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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