Hours after Theresa May made her emotional resignation announcement Friday morning, the campaigns immediately revved up to succeed her as leader of the Conservative Party and thus become prime minister of the United Kingdom.
As is expected among the British on just about everything, hard at work were the chief prognosticators on the sceptered island: the bookies.
The venerable British publication “The Spectator” reported that the betting exchange Smarkets gives former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson a whopping 40 percent chance of succeeding May.
The closer competitor for Johnson is Dominic Raab, former secretary for Exiting the European Union, whom the odds makers give a 19 percent chance.
Both Johnson, 54 and Raab, 45, have gilt-edged credentials among the dominant party faction that wants out of the European Union and rebelled against May’s Brexit plans “with strings attached.”
The man known universally among Conservatives as “BoJo” was chairman of the “Leave” campaign during the Brexit referendum in 2016. Sensing the inevitably of a Johnson win, many younger Conservatives have already climbed aboard the “BoJo” bandwagon—among them Jacob Rees-Mogg, who provided much of the intellectual firepower for Brexit in the House of Commons, and Johnny Mercer, a decorated veteran of Afghanistan and best-selling author who is on everyone’s short list to be prime minister someday.
Raab earned his stripes on the right by resigning as Brexit secretary last November to protest May’s compromise package on leaving the EU. Among other things, Raab has a black belt in karate — hence his nickname, “The Karate Kid.”
Running third among the bookies is, to the surprise of many, Michael Gove. Favored by 9 percent, the former Education secretary and stalwart right-winger is blamed by many for betraying Johnson in the leadership contest of 2016 and thus putting May in power. But he still has a following on the right and has apparently made up with former friend Johnson.
In fourth place with 6 percent is Andrea Leadsom, who just resigned as leader of the House of Commons to protest May’s final Brexit plan. Next, with a 5 percent chance of winning, is Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, a last-ditch ally of May’s.
Two contenders considered more likely to become prime minister down the road are Rory Stewart (5 percent), linguist, minister of international development, and onetime tutor to Princes William and Harry, and newly-minted Defense Secretary Penny Mordaunt (4 percent).
Half-a-dozen other ministers, junior ministers, and Members of Parliament are either mentioned or actually running for the Conservative leadership. But so unknown are they the oddsmakers give no odds on them.
Once May’s resignation is submitted June 7, the Conservative Members of Parliament will begin voting on their choice for leader. Once the balloting gets down to two candidates, their names will go to the dues-paying membership of the party nationwide. The winner of that contest will be leader and prime minister — most likely in July.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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