There is speculation over whether the winner of Ohio's Republican Senate primary Tuesday will be Trump-endorsed entrepreneur Bernie Moreno or GOP establishment-backed State Sen. Matt Dolan.
The safest bets that can be made about the race are that its outcome will be very close and that it will be discussed and interpreted nationwide.
The hard-fought nature of the three-candidate contest (Secretary of State Frank LaRose is running a distant third in surveys of likely primary voters) became clear by the intensity of the Moreno and Dolan campaigns in the twilight days of the primary.
On Saturday, former President Donald Trump flew into Dayton to rally support for Moreno. In repeatedly praising Moreno and calling him to the podium, the Trump slammed Dolan for what he charged was the lawmaker "trying to become the next Mitt Romney," leading the crowd to boo at the mention of the 2012 GOP presidential nominee.
Trump also hit hard at Dolan's family, who are the majority shareholders in the Cleveland major league baseball team for changing its name from the Indians to the Guardians.
"[The Dolans are] easily pushed around by the woke left-wing lunatics," Trump said. (For his part, Dolan has long insisted he has nothing to do with the management of the team).
On Sunday and Monday, Dolan blitzed the state accompanied by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who endorsed Dolan last week and was joined by former Sen. Rob Portman, who served as George W. Bush's budget chief.
At a rally for Dolan on Monday evening, Franklin County (Columbus) GOP Chair Doug Preisse closed the event. He told Newsmax, "by saying we had to take off the suit coat, which I did, and lose the tie, which I did … and roll up our sleeves … and I took off my shirt to reveal a Dolan t-shirt!"
In past years, county chairs such as Preisse wielded tremendous clout and their support meant a lot to candidates in primaries. The statewide organization built by state Party Chair (and later Republican National Chair) Ray Bliss in the 1960s was key to the success of so-called "establishment Republicans."
But the recent Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court enhanced the power of "SuperPACs" and thus meant the candidates who had personal wealth or were backed by wealthy supporters could beat the party machine.
Moreover, the rise of Trump and the MAGA movement within the Republican Party also gives candidates associated with them a big edge in primaries.
A recent Emerson Poll among likely primary voters showed Moreno leading Dolan by 38% to 29%, with 12% for LaRose. But few are betting on a decisive win, given the likelihood of a low turnout.
"Turnout in early voting is low and turnout is expected to be low Tuesday," said Preisse.
The winner will face three-term Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has been in elected office for all but two of the last 50 years and has only lost one race.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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