In the intricate dance of presidential politics, the selection of a vice-presidential (VP) candidate is a pivotal moment. This decision not only shapes the campaign but also reflects the strategic foresight of the presidential candidate.
As former President Donald Trump, who on the heels of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary seems to be an even stronger favorite than he was in 2016, contemplates his running mate for the 2024 presidential election, a delve into historical precedents and an analysis of potential candidates becomes imperative.
History is replete with instances where the VP choice has significantly impacted presidential campaigns. A classic example is the 1960 Kennedy-Johnson ticket. John F. Kennedy, a northern senator with limited experience, selected Lyndon B. Johnson, a seasoned senator from Texas, achieving a balance of youth and experience, as well as regional appeal. This strategic move helped Kennedy secure crucial southern states.
In 1980, conservative hero and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan chose a strategy that united a GOP that was seemingly every bit as factional in that cycle as it has been in every subsequent one since. That election saw Reagan choose an establishment adversary, former CIA Director George H.W. Bush as his running mate in an effort to appeal to all corners of the Republican party.
These historical insights suggest that a VP candidate should complement the presidential candidate's weaknesses and bolster the strength of the ticket overall. For Trump, who has a controversial political and public persona, the decision involves balancing his loyal and rabid base with the need to appeal to broader demographics, particularly in reaching the two groups most likely to ultimately decide the 2024 presidential election — moderate and undecided voters.
Evaluating a Few of Trump's Potential Running Mates
Ron DeSantis: Florida's governor is seen as a superstar in Republican circles, known for his traditional conservative policies and confrontational style, which in many ways mirror Trump's approach. DeSantis' management of Florida, particularly his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, garnered national attention and led many blue state residents to flock to Florida in large numbers.
His strong base in Florida, which led to his landslide reelection in what is normally a key battleground state, is a significant advantage. Pros — Strong base in a crucial swing state, aligns closely with Trump's policies. Cons — Similar political style to Trump, which might not broaden the electoral appeal in regard to reaching moderates.
Tim Scott: Sen. Scott from South Carolina brings a different dynamic to the table. As the only African American Republican in the Senate, he has a unique appeal that could help the Republican ticket reach out to minority voters, a demographic that has often eluded Trump.
His work with the former president on opportunity zone legislation shows an ability to engage with issues critically important to a segment of voters who have been wary of Trump in the past. Pros — Appeals to minority voters, brings a more measured and conciliatory approach. Cons — Some policy differences with Trump, might not fully resonate with Trump's base.
Richard Grenell: This name has popped up several times in the past six months or so. Grenell's tenure as ambassador to Germany and acting director of National Intelligence showcases his loyalty to Trump and his alignment with Trump's foreign policy vision.
Grenell could be instrumental in broadening the appeal of the Republican ticket to LGBTQ+ communities, challenging the stereotype of the GOP's stance on social issues. However, his lesser-known status in domestic politics and lack of a broader national profile may limit his ability to draw additional votes.
Pros — Demonstrated loyalty, potential appeal to a widely diverse group of voters. Cons — May have limited domestic policy experience, may be lesser-known nationally.
In contemplating his VP choice, Trump must also consider the constitutional duties of the vice president. The VP serves as the president of the Senate, a role that has gained prominence in recent years with the increasing frequency of split Senate votes. This responsibility demands a VP who is not only politically astute but also capable of forging relationships across the aisle, a crucial aspect in the event of legislative deadlocks.
In this capacity is where Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis can shine as either current or former members of Congress. They understand the "swamp" because they have swum in its murky waters. They know the way the game is played and how to best execute the Trump agenda, should he defeat President Joe Biden in November.
We should also remember that the VP choice also has a regional dimension to it. For instance, DeSantis might strengthen Trump's position in Florida and the broader South, whereas Scott, also from the South, brings a different kind of appeal through his policy positions and personal story.
As Trump mulls over his VP choice, he faces a complex matrix of strategic considerations. The decision is more than a political maneuver; it's a statement about the direction in which he intends to take his potential administration. The right VP candidate can provide a counterbalance, appeal to a broader electorate, and bring complementary skills and experiences to the ticket.
The choice between candidates such as DeSantis, Scott, Grenell, and the many other choices not featured in this writing is not just about who can help win the election, but also about who can effectively fulfill the multifaceted role of the vice president. This decision can not only put a ticket over the top, but can also ensure that should he win in November, that Trump is better represented within the legislative branch than he was between January 2017 and January 2021.
Julio Rivera is a business and political strategist, cybersecurity researcher, and a political commentator and columnist. His writing, which is focused on cybersecurity and politics, is regularly published by many of the most respected news organizations in the world. Read Julio Rivera's Reports — More Here.
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