President Joe Biden has noticed that, if he talks tough vis-à-vis Russia to condemn its February 24th invasion of Ukraine, his lackluster approval ratings revive.
What about his bite? So far his administration has not done much in kinetic terms, as Poland’s MiG story suggests.
First, a disclaimer: the U.S. should not send combat troops into Ukraine to prove Biden’s virility. That’s completely out.
It is about other ways to help Ukraine, for instance, by supplying weapons. “I don’t need a ride. I need more ammunition,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy famously responded to our offer of evacuation.
Ukraine asked for planes, as well. The Ukrainians started talking to everyone, primarily their western neighbors, including the Poles, about securing military assistance.
Poland responded that it adhered to strict neutrality like other NATO members. However, Warsaw agreed to supply defensive and non-lethal materiel.
Despite that, disinformation appeared soon afterwards, following the talks, on February 28, “Our partners give us the MiG-29 and SU-25! If necessary, they will be able to be based on Polish airfields from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions. Bulgaria [will hand over] (MiG-29) — 16 pieces,… (SU-25) 14 pieces [;] Poland (MiG-29) 28 pcs [; and] Slovakia MiG-29 12 pcs.” This was posted allegedly on the official website of the Armed Forces News of Ukraine.
Neither Poland nor anyone else promised anything like that, which would have been a violation of NATO’s neutrality and, in fact, a clear casus belli toward Russia. The Kremlin was furious and immediately issued threats of armed retaliation.
Further, some observed that this was obviously a Ukrainian provocation aiming at prompting a Russian attack on Poland which would then trigger NATO’s Article 5 and precipitate a full-blown European war, which could ultimately metastasize into a global nuclear conflict.
Conversely, this could also be Russian fake news to blame the slaughter on the Poles, NATO, and the United States. The fog of war may be too thick to tell.
Yet, the White House picked up the MiG story without checking its veracity. It praised the Poles. The State Department started making approving noises to facilitate the transfer of the aircraft to Ukraine. We also heard about “the Polish planes” on the floor of the Senate.
It seemed to many as if Joe Biden and his team egged the Poles on to hand the planes over directly to the Ukrainians. The Poles demurred.
Instead, Warsaw denied the story. But the Polish did offer to fly the planes to the U.S. Airforce base in Reimstein, Germany, to put them at America’s disposal. Then, if all NATO members agreed, they could be handed over to Ukraine.
The Biden administration collectively gulped and started backpedaling quickly. It declined the Polish offer of the MiGs. “The failure of Team Biden to back up Warsaw is a failure of U.S. leadership,” according to The Wall Street Journal.
Perhaps the White House will do better in the non-kinetic field of economic sanctions.
However, economic sanctions are always a mixed bag. They hurt the poor and vulnerable most, and then the average guy. As for the elites, the impact tends to be mild. It may be embarrassing or even downright humiliating not to be able to shop in Paris or have one’s yacht confiscated, but there are always the Seychelles, where the Russian oligarchs like to put in: not too shabby.
After Ronald Reagan imposed sanctions on Communist Poland when its rulers crushed the national liberation movement “Solidarity,” the red regime’s spokesman crudely sneered: “The government will always feed itself.” And so it will, whether in Moscow or in Tehran.
That is not to say that sanctions are futile, for they can be symbolic; rather, it is obvious that the powerful escape them. There are always exceptions, or at least the mighty find ways to circumvent them or lessen their bite.
The verdict is still out on Biden. And the way to success should be clear to him.
All the U.S. president should do is start pumping gas in the U.S. and return to implementing Donald Trump’s plan to send American energy products to the Intermarium for distribution in Europe to guarantee its energy security. Putin’s goose would then be cooked.
Next, the U.S. should gift Poland nuclear weapons. Moscow would not dare move anymore. Paradoxically, the nukes are the best guarantees of peace, as America’s Cold War experience amply demonstrated.
Marek Jan Chodakiewicz is Professor of History at the Institute of World Politics, a graduate school of statecraft in Washington D.C.; expert on East-Central Europe's Three Seas region; author, among others, of "Intermarium: The Land Between The Baltic and Black Seas." Read Marek Jan Chodakiewicz's Reports — More Here.
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