Is Armenian Loophole Letting U.S. Adversaries Off Sanctions Hook?

Armenia is seemingly reorientated toward the West. Is that true? Or, is it a sanctions escape hatch for the Kremlin?

The Armenians and Jews have frequently been compared in literary circles.

Historians, journalists, and political experts have pointed out a host of similarities between the two people: Their relatively small size, their wide dispersion around the world, their years of statelessness, the fact that both homelands are surrounded by largely hostile Muslim countries, their influential lobbies in the U.S.

Yet despite the numerous Judeo-Armenian parallels, it seems they have not been able to forge any significant sense of inter-ethnic amitié — at the individual level or the collective level.

Enmity at the personal level

A 2018 poll among nearly 56,000 adults across 34 countries spanning Western, Central, and Eastern European countries by Pew Research Center showed almost 80% of Armenians would not accept a Jew into their families — more than any other country in the survey. An earlier 2017 Pew poll of 18 Central and East European countries found that less than two-thirds of Armenians would accept Jews as citizens of their country — again the highest in the survey.

The Pew polls were preceded by a widely-cited country-specific survey conducted by the ADL that found that almost 60% of Armenians harbored antisemitic sentiments. For example, over 60% believed Jews were hated because of how they behave, and almost 40% consider the Jews are to blame for most the wars in the world.

Significantly, the survey was conducted in 2014 — over half a decade before the 2020 second Karabakh War, in which Azerbaijan won significant territorial gains from Armenia; and almost a decade before the 2023 offensive, which resulted in all of Karabakh coming under the control of Baku, and virtually all ethnic Armenians inhabitants of Karabakh evacuating the territory.

Accordingly, although the supply of Israeli arms to Azerbaijan is cited as a major factor in Baku’s military successes, this cannot account for the anti-Jewish animus found in the previously mentioned polls.

Enmity at the collective level

Last month, former Knesset member, Ruth Wasserman-Lande posted an article explaining why Iran is the major obstacle to Mideast peace and the principal source of regional instability. This gave added relevance to an earlier analysis by the Israeli-based Alma Research and Education Center, which details how Armenia is aiding Iran in transporting arms to Syria and Lebanon — bitter foes of the Jewish state.

Indeed the nature of the Iran-Armenian relationship is best reflected by the 2023 appointment by Tehran of its new ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, formerly Iran’s envoy to Syria. Sobhani was responsible for coordination/cooperation between the Iranian-backed armed forces and the Syrian government and is reportedly a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), designated as a terror organization by the U.S. in 2019.

Indeed, Armenia’s Iranian-related malfeasance can be traced back over a decade-and-a-half. Thus, according to a 2008 Washington Times report, State Department cables reveal that the Armenian government had supplied Iran with rockets and machine guns later used to kill U.S. troops in Iraq.

Accumulating wealth by circumventing sanctions

But apart from the troubling collusion with the Iranian regime, there is another ominous aspect to Armenia's international behavior — its role as a channel to circumvent Western sanctions against Russia, following Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Just how fast and far-reaching the involvement of Armenia has been in helping Moscow evade these sanctions can be assessed by some astounding economic data.

Since the imposition of the 2022 sanctions on Russia, the Armenian economy has produced some remarkable results.

Although economic forecasts for the country were initially bleak when the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war broke out, since then imports/exports and GDP have grown spectacularly. Thus, despite the fact that some financial institutions — including the Central Bank of Armenia — slashed their forecasts for Armenian economic growth in 2022, in reality, Armenia’s National Statistical Committee reported that the country’s foreign trade in 2022 leaped by almost 70% compared to 2021. Exports in 2022 rose by almost 80% compared to 2021.

A 2023 article in a leading British daily, dubbed the 13% annual growth of Armenia’s economy of “absurd,”,\ asserting that “booms so fantastical it can only be through connivance with the Russian authorities”

Robust & resolute response required

Armenia has exploited the fact it is the only EU’s Eastern Partnership country that is both a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and a signatory to a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with Brussels. Thus, straddling both camps Armenia has ample opportunity for transfering sanctioned goods and services from the EU to — and from — Russia.

So, while official Armenia has been vigorously pursuing the impression of reorientation towards the West, in reality, it is functioning as one of Moscow’s principal hubs for evading sanctions over the past two years of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Accordingly, for the West to achieve its strategic objectives against Russian aggression, the Armenian loophole must be plugged. Armenia must be shown that it cannot only flout sanctions with impunity but pursue such policy as a means of economic enrichment. Its recalcitrant collaboration must be met with a punitive response that is both resolute and robust.