The landslide victory of Donald J. Trump On. Nov. 5, 2024 set a proverbial cat among pigeons. Suddenly, things that previously appeared totally impossible look increasingly feasible.
'Red Alert' in Iran?
This seems particularly true concerning Iran’s nuclear program and the chances of defusing the danger it presents.
In this regard, earlier this month, Iran Daily, which functions as the official mouthpiece of the Iranian regime, published a front-page story, "Israel’s Growing Footprint in Azerbaijan Raises Red Alert," urging Iranian security/government institutions to closely follow developments in the Caucasus region.
In conveying its concern over the winds-of-change blowing from the White House, the article refers to a January 2023 policy-paper by a leading Israeli think tank, prominently featured in a recent article of this writer's, discussing the potential value of a Washington-Jerusalem-Baku axis.
This writer ended that article with a proposal that such an axis "is something the new U.S. administration should factor into its foreign policy in its endeavor to engender enhanced stability across the globe."
Judging from the Iran Daily’s reaction, it seems that Tehran not only recognizes the likely potential of such an axis, but is greatly alarmed by it.
A ‘Triaxial’ Alliance?
Indeed, Iranian paper mentions a second paper, published by the same think-tank, of a more recent article articulating, even more expressly, the potential benefits such an alliance could entail.
Given the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape the global order, the paper suggests that Azerbaijan’s significance — both for U.S. and Israeli strategic interests — has increased even further.
It lists several possibilities in which Baku’s advantage and capabilities can be leveraged to benefit the American administration and its major Mideast ally, Israel.
Among these factors is the virtual stranglehold Azerbaijan, having shared borders with both Russia and Iran, could exert on much of Moscow’s current land-based trade with Tehran.
But of paramount importance, the paper suggests leveraging Azerbaijan's advantages and capabilities "to exert maximum pressure on Iran to force it to abandon its nuclear program."
The relevance of this for current U.S. policy was underscored by a March 7, 2025 declaration on Iran by Trump in an Oval Office press conference when he elaborated on his position concerning Iran, "We’re down to final moments. We’re at final moments. We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon . . . "
"Taking Iran’s nuclear program off the table."
This echoes the position taken in early February, when President Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) "taking Iran’s nuclear program off the table" and "restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon."
The memorandum underscores, "President Trump will not tolerate Iran possessing a nuclear weapons capability."
All of this is good news for Israel, after four years of thinly veiled animosity from the Biden presidency and its flaccid appeasement of the ayatollahs' regime, allowing it to creep ever closer to attaining nuclear capability.
Of course, even under the restrictive Biden-era diktaats, Israel showed remarkable military capability, after recovering from the initial shock of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack,
Indeed, distinguished historian Victor Davis Hanson catalogued these achievements in a recent video.
In it, he enumerated Israel’s extraordinary success both in defense, totally thwarting Iran’s 500 missile attack, and on offense, largely destroying Tehran’s aerial defenses, dismantling Hezbollah in Lebanon, inflicting overwhelming damage on Hamas, and indirectly causing the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.
He asserts that two years ago, no one would have believed this feasible.
"Israeli attack worse than a nuclear Iran"
While all this is true, all the Israel action under Biden has been largely retaliatory and usually limited in scope, often to specific targets.
What is emerging now is, that to cripple the Iran’s nuclear project, there is need for strikes on a far wider and more sustained scale.
This is an ever-emerging scenario in which Azerbaijan can play a pivotal role, both in terms of intelligence and in the provision of physical facilities.
Indeed, it was a feature article in Foreign Policy, Israel’s Secret Staging Ground, that raised precisely such a possibility.
Citing well-informed sources, it wrote, "I don’t think there’s any doubt — if Israeli jets want to land in Azerbaijan after an attack, they’d probably be allowed to do so. Israel is deeply embedded in Azerbaijan."
Adding substance to this position are reports that the Obama administration deliberately thwarted Israeli plans to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities from Azerbaijan by leaking details of the plan.
This motivated John Bolton, who served as America’s UN Ambassador and National Security Adviser to declare that former Democratic regimes felt that "an Israeli attack [on Iran] is worse than an Iranian nuclear weapon."
Never More Compelling
Of course, today, things are a far cry from that. Indeed, it is difficult to conceive of an administration more amenable to Israel and more understanding of the existential threat it faces from Iran.
Clearly, today Israel’s air power has been considerably enhanced both in terms of weaponry, range and refueling — as recent strikes on Yemen have illustrated.
However, including Baku in the effort to eliminate the scourge of an Islamic nuclear bomb, by offering assistance in pre-operation intelligence gathering and in possible post-operation search-and-rescue missions, should any Israeli aircraft be downed.
Accordingly, as the ayatollahs inch closer to their desired doomsday weapon, the rationale for a countervailing triaxial alliance has never been closer — or more compelling.
(A related column may be found here.)
Dr. Martin Sherman spent seven years in operational capacities in the Israeli defense establishment. He's the founder of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a member of the Habithonistim-Israel Defense & Security Forum (IDSF) research team, and a participant in the Israel Victory Project. Read Martin Sherman's Reports — More Here.
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