Once Again, Iran Has Nuclear Negotiating Leverage and They Know It

There are serious implications to the United States re-entering the Nuclear Deal with Iran.

While the results may be very ugly, they are not all doomsday negatives. That the United States is engaged with other world powers and negotiating is, in and of itself, an important step forward.

The "5 plus 1" will meet with Iran in Vienna. Five plus one is the group composed of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany.

In an uncharacteristic (and therefore suspicious) move, according to Iran the talks were successful and they agreed to meet again on Friday.

Knowing that they declined numerous earlier offers, that Iranian leadership agreed first to phone dialogue without the US and then to face-to-face meeting with the United States, is a significant step. This means Iran has been first to compromise.

That Iran agreed to the participation of the United States in the Vienna meetings is another positive (albeit still suspicious) step.

The small gesture of agreeing to talks looks even larger because of Iran’s earlier refusals.

Iran knows what they are doing. Iran always works off a blueprint. Iran always has a plan.

This is the exact situation that existed during the Obama presidency when the original Nuke Deal negotiations which resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The West, especially the United States wanted an agreement so desperately that Iran knew it, they could taste it.

That is why the original Nuke Deal with Iran was so very one-sided.

It lacked any real teeth.

The inspection clauses were incomplete, they did not permit inspections on military bases.

And there were none.

The sunset clauses were tantamount to giving Iran the green light to develop nuclear technology, energy and weapons.

On May 8, 2018 then President Trump held a press conference announcing the exit of the United States from JCPOA. In the eleven-minute press conference, Donald J. Trump explained the weakness of the Nuke Deal.

He said: "At the heart of the Iran deal was a giant fiction, that a murderous regime desired only a peaceful, nuclear energy program. Today, we have definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie."

The "definitive proof" President Trump referred to was the massive intel theft by Israel of the entire Iranian nuclear archive.

After Trump’s press conference, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a press conference and tweeted in agreement.

Netanyahu tweeted: "bold decision today to reject the disastrous nuclear deal with the terrorist regime in Tehran. The deal didn’t push war further away; it actually brought it closer. The deal didn’t reduce Iran’s aggression; it dramatically increased it."

Today, almost three years later, Iran knows that they have the upper hand.

The Iranians will demand more than a simple return to the same old - same old nuclear agreement. The proverbial pot will need to be sweetened for them to come back to the table.

Once again, Iran has leverage and they know it.

Just look at the negotiating table.

Iran is one single party negotiating with six leaders from around the world. Not from their region – from the world. And they see themselves as at least equal, if not superior, to the group of six.

Everything is falling into place for Iran. On the same day that the talks in Vienna were announced, Iranian TV announced that China had signed on to new trade agreements for Iran. Russia has already signed agreements with Iran. China and Russia were the first two countries to agree to return to the nuclear negotiating table.

France, England and Germany, the next three countries, are extremely eager to get the Iranians back to the table and resume the agreement. Finally, the new US administration is running toward Iran.

Russia, China and Iran will be on one side during the new Nuke Deal negotiation. Germany, France and England, while not necessarily pro-Iran, want a deal in place. The United States is moving into position with them, but not yet there.

Despite the Biden administration’s desire to resuscitate the Nuke Deal they are, none-the-less, the most conservative and skeptical of Iran and their intentions.

With Iranian inspired and insisted upon modifications, there will be a new Nuke Deal. And, once again, the United States will capitulate.

Micah Halpern is a political and foreign affairs commentator. He founded "The Micah Report" and hosts "Thinking Out Loud with Micah Halpern" a weekly TV program and "My Chopp" a daily radio spot. A dynamic speaker, he specializes in analyzing world events and evaluating their relevance and impact. Follow him on Twitter @MicahHalpern. Read Micah Halpern's Reports — More Here.