A new poll in the battleground state of Arizona has former President Donald Trump 37 points ahead of his second-place rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis as well as leading Democrat President Joe Biden by 5 points in the 2024 race.
According to a new poll released Tuesday by Noble Predictive Insights, Trump leads DeSantis for the GOP nomination in the key battleground state 53% to 16%, followed by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy with 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley with 8%, and four other candidates all polling below 4%.
Former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott both dropped out of the race after the poll closed.
The survey was conducted Oct. 25-31 with 348 Arizonians and has a margin of error of +/- 5.25 percentage points.
The new poll of the GOP primary mirrors Trump's 5-point advantage against Biden in the general election, 49% to 44% in the general election, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll Nov. 5.
That lead increases to 46% to 38% in a separate Arizona Public Opinion Pulse online poll also conducted Oct. 25-31 with 1,010 completed surveys, and a 3.1% margin of error.
"An eight-point lead for Trump is striking, but not surprising. Poll averages have Trump ahead of Biden by about a point nationally — that's a five-point swing from the 2020 results," David Byler, NPI Chief of Research said in a press release announcing the polling. "If Arizona — one of the most closely contested states of 2020 — also swung that much, we'd expect individual polls to give Trump a mid-to-high single-digit lead. That's exactly what our poll — and other recent surveys – have shown."
Among Republicans, Trump has the most support with younger members of the party, 53% of those Republicans 18-34, 43% with 35-44, 37% of those 45-54, 32% with 55-64, and 23% of those over the age of 65, the polling found.
"Older Republicans have stuck with the GOP as individual leaders like Reagan, Bush, and Trump have come and gone. The Republican Party, as an institution, matters to them," Byler said. "But younger Republicans haven't built that bond. For young Republicans, Trump defines the party. And they're loyal to him."
On the other hand, among Democrats, Biden gets most of his support by those aged 45-54 with 24%, followed by those over 65 with 21%, 20% of those Democrats 55-64, 17% of the 18-34 crowd, and just 12% of those 35-44 supporting the president, the survey found.
Charles Kim ✉
Charles Kim, a Newsmax general assignment writer, is an award-winning journalist with more than 30 years in reporting on news and politics.
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