Analysis: Vaccines Alone Could Bring Herd Immunity By Summer

Herd immunity against the coronavirus could be reached in the United States by the end of summer through vaccines alone and potentially even sooner when natural immunity is added in, according to a CNN analysis.

Shots are currently being given at a pace of about 2 million doses a day, reports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meaning that 70% of the population could be fully vaccinated by the end of July, with 85% having their full vaccinations by mid-September, when the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is factored in. 

At this point, the thresholds for herd immunity, which describes the point when enough people are protected against a disease so that it can't spread, are just estimates. However, health experts agree that herd immunity happens when between 70% and 85% of a population is protected, a figure with which Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, agrees. 

Meanwhile, Biden said this week that the United States will have enough vaccines to protect all adults in the country by the end of May. 

Even if the two-dose vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna were the only shots available, 70% of the US population could still be fully vaccinated by mid-September. But with the Food and Drug Administration recently approving Johnson & Johnson's one-dose vaccine for emergency use, those numbers grow to immunizing 70% of the country by July, two months sooner than with the first vaccines alone. 

As the CDC estimates that a quarter of the United States may have already been infected by COVID-19, herd immunity could be reached between the combination of shots and natural immunity as early as June. 

However, there are new variants that could lessen the protection brought through vaccines, and with there being some people hesitant to get their shots, the figures on herd immunity could change, CNN notes. 

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