Oklahoma Poll: Trump Leads DeSantis by 9 Points

Former President Donald Trump maintains a 9-point lead in Oklahoma over Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and the prospective 2024 GOP primary field, according to the latest Sooner Survey.

Trump pulled 38% support to DeSantis' 29%, with 11% undecided and all other candidates in single digits:

Trump 38%
DeSantis 29%
Former Vice President Mike Pence 6%
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley 6%
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, 4%
Someone else 3%
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo 2%

While the distribution keeps Trump below a majority of GOP primary voters, he draws a combined 60% of those who will "definitely" (30%) at "least probably" (30%) vote for Trump after evaluating the alternatives. Just 18% say they will "definitely not" vote for Trump, while 19% say they will probably not, and 4% were undecided.

"I think that’s the really interesting thing here: We have a large percentage of Oklahoma Republicans who are inclined to vote for Donald Trump but say beating Biden is the most important factor," Sooner Survey pollster Pat McFerron told The Oklahoman.

"You've got that conflict voters are very concerned about. The other thing happening there is DeSantis appeals to a lot of those Trump folks. He's a competitor, but he's not a contrast."

Notably, the poll was conducted before Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg delivered an unprecedented indictment and arraignment of Trump on 34 counts of falsifying the business records — a case even some Democrats and anti-Trump forces have denounced as politically motivated.

"Ron DeSantis is a young man who is not doing well against me in the polls, to put it mildly," Trump posted Monday morning on Truth Social. "I believe that if he decides to run for president, which will only hurt and somewhat divide the Republican Party, he will lose the cherished and massive MAGA vote, and never be able to successfully run for office again.

"If he remains governor, which is what Florida voters assumed, it would be a whole different story … .JUST SAYIN' – But who knows?"

The Sooner Survey was conducted by McFerron's Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass, and Associates between March 27-30 among 500 registered Oklahoma voters, including 300 registered Republicans. The margins of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for the registered Republicans sample.