The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts another active hurricane season in the Atlantic — the sixth unusually active season in a row. The season is poised for extraordinarily high levels of activity.
"Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring. The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms," said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo.
The hurricane season comes in the wake of the most active time for hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin. So far, 30 storms were recorded in 2020, 12 of which struck the United States, setting a new benchmark.
For this year, a few main factors indicate a high level of activity. Matthew Rosencrans, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, explains, "ENSO-neutral (or El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and La Niña support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era.
"Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year's overall activity."
In certain parts of the tropical Atlantic, ocean temperatures are running higher than last year.
"Although NOAA scientists don't expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community. The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season," said Ben Friedman, NOAA's deputy under secretary for operations.
Though the forecasts predict less activity than last year, an increase in the duration of hurricane landfall is expected. Michael Mann, director of Penn State's Earth System Science Center, cites a study by Nature on global warming and landfall hurricanes: "This study indeed helps provide a fuller picture of how climate change is leading to increased threat from landfalling hurricanes. The fuller picture that is emerging is one of hurricanes that are not only getting stronger with greater wind damage and larger storm surge, but are more likely to stall upon landfall AND maintain their intensity after landfall, leading to increased flooding and damage," according to The Washington Post.
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