The nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran face a major roadblock if a potential power struggle rips apart the Islamic Republic's leadership,
The Wall Street Journal reported.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 75, is undergoing grueling treatment for prostate cancer, and the state-run media recently revealed how serious his illness has become by releasing photos of him in the hospital.
The Journal says that his condition will have "put ambitious men in motion" while there has already been a change at the top with the election this month of Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, a hardline mullah, to head the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body that selects and ostensibly oversees the supreme leader.
Yazdi defeated Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founder of the Islamic Republic and Khamenei's bitter enemy since the regime's earliest days.
An advocate for Iran having nuclear weapons, Yazdi once wrote, "The most advanced weapons must be produced inside our country even if our enemies don't like it. There is no reason that they have the right to produce a special type of weapons, while other countries are deprived of it."
While racing against a March 31 deadline to reach a nuclear deal between western powers and the Mideast nation,
Secretary of State John Kerry said that although substantial progress had been made, there were still some "important gaps."
"Yet what happens if the Iranian leadership that the U.S. and others are dealing with now is not in place to implement any agreement?" wrote London-based Journal reporter Sohrab Ahmari.
"Recent developments suggest that the Islamic Republic may be heading toward one of its cyclical spasms of intense factional competition.
"The outcome could derail any deal, or leave the West committed to an agreement that is even less verifiable or useful than it might be today. There is scant evidence that the Obama administration is taking this into account."
Rafsanjani, now 80, was Iran's president for much of the 1990s, and he's is a mentor of Iran's supposedly moderate current president, Hasan Rouhani, according to the newspaper.
It's widely believed that Rafsanjani still hopes to become the supreme leader, but his aspirations have been blocked by Khamenei, who has the support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the military unit tasked with preserving the regime at home and exporting the revolution abroad.
"A succession struggle, if one develops, could result in dangerous instability and the empowerment of people who make the old rivals look moderate," wrote Ahmari.
"A nightmare scenario would arise if the more messianic, fanatical elements in the IRGC stage a coup after Khamenei's death, capture the Assembly of Experts and appoint as leader someone like Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi.
"Khamenei is still with us, but waiting in the wings are men and factions even less likely than the current leadership to live up to the terms of a deal. Will a nuclear agreement include a Yazdi exception clause?"
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