Republicans and Democrats will be watching anxiously when the winner is announced in the battle for New Hampshire's Senate seat next Tuesday.
The result of the race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican rival Scott Brown is seen as a likely gauge of how the rest of the country will vote in other close elections, according to
The Wall Street Journal.
Shaheen, who served two terms as governor before becoming senator in 2008, is expected to win, and would give strength to the Democratic strategy of making Senate races about local issues while highlighting the differences in that respect between candidates.
But a surprise Nov. 4 victory by Brown soon after 8 p.m. on the East Coast would immediately indicate a possible GOP wave across the country, the newspaper said.
Shaheen’s defeat, in fact, would signal a considerable upset and a major shift in voters to the GOP in the last few months, especially considering that the incumbent had led by double-digit margins for months.
The nonpartisan website RealClearPolitics recently revealed that an average of recent polls has Shaheen ahead by just 48.2 to 46 percent, basically a statistical tie, the Journal reported.
The fact that Brown, a former Massachusetts senator who moved to New Hampshire after his 2012 defeat, even stands a chance has stunned Republicans, because Shaheen has proved to be a popular politician during her tenure as governor and senator.
“If you had asked me six months ago, I would have had a hard time seeing it get this close,” said Tom Rath, a longtime GOP political strategist in the state. “Now it is this close.”
And Jennifer Duffy, of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Journal, “If they win New Hampshire, we will know there really is a Republican wave. If there is anything building, we are going to see it in New Hampshire first.”
Washington pundits will be keeping a close eye on the race because the state is seen as a political bellwether, with both House seats switching to Democrats in 2006, then back to Republicans in 2010, and again to Democrats in 2012, following national voting trends.
But Democrats say they always expected the race to tighten in a swing state, and they still believe that Shaheen will be the one smiling at the end of the day, according to the Journal.
“Are we worried? No,” said Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “Are we doing what we need to do to run a great campaign? Yes.”
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