Obamacare, the controversial healthcare law that rallied the Republican Party and helped them win both house of Congress in the 2014 midterms, is turning out to be a thorn in the party’s side.
The Supreme Court’s ruling last week that Obamacare subsidies are legal even in states that do not have their own insurance marketplace — in addition to technical improvements made to the online marketplace and a "historic drop" in the nation’s uninsured rate — have somewhat crippled the GOP’s ability to use the law as a wedge issue, according to
The Hill.
"Nearly 90 percent of people who have bought healthcare plans are now benefiting from Obamacare subsidies, and new data shows that the majority like their new healthcare plans," according to The Hill.
"Around the country, hospitals are seeing fewer emergency room visits and doctors are moving away from payments based on the number of procedures, rather than the care of their patient."
The president’s signature piece of legislation initially served as a unifier for the GOP, which predicted doomsday for premiums and care, a forecast that at first seemed prescient when the "disastrous" HealthCare.gov rollout forced President Barack Obama to extend enrollment deadlines.
But over time, according to The Hill, approval ratings for the law having slow begun to tick upward and then last week, just before the Supreme Court’s decision was announced, a report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office found repealing Obamacare — a proposition of conservative Republicans — would increase the deficit.
The findings stymie efforts by some in the party who want to use a budget process known as reconciliation to undo the law, because reconciliation measures must reduce the deficit.
There’s an internal divide among Republicans about how to deal with the law. Some GOP governors have accepted Medicaid expansion in their states while others refuse to do so.
With last week’s ruling solidifying the law as a permanent entitlement, the wrangling continues.
According to
NBC News political writers Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann, the GOP can’t undo the law even if they win the presidency in 2016.
"Think about it: Say Republicans control the White House and Congress in 2017, say Republicans are able to use reconciliation (and a favorable ruling from the Senate parliamentarian), and say they have actual legislation to replace the health-care law," they write. "Then what?
"That new GOP president would see his entire presidency defined by health care (just like the current president). He'd own the implementation and all of the problems associated with it (just like the current president); he'd own premiums going up, even though premiums usually go up (just like the current president); and he'd face an opposition unwilling to help him even one inch (just like the current president).
"Does all of that sound familiar?"
Any Republican candidate who pledges to repeal Obamacare is "making a pledge they probably can't keep — or if they try to, it's one that could define (and ruin) their presidency," according to NBC News, which predicted an 85 percent to 90 percent chance of the law remaining intact.
"And that percentage goes up to 100 percent if Democrats win another presidential contest in 2016," they predict.
Kaiser Family Foundation Vice President Larry Levitt told The Hill that the horse has left the barn when it comes to Obamacare.
"With each passing day it becomes harder and harder to imagine this law being repealed," he said. "There are just too many people covered and it's just too big a part of the healthcare system to turn back the clock."
Even House Speaker John Boehner has long indicated he doesn’t think the law is going anywhere, according to The Hill, which reports that when asked in 2012 about repeal votes Boehner responded, "I think the election changes that. It's pretty clear that the president was re-elected. Obamacare is the law of the land."
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