Emerson Poll: Gallego Tops Lake by 4 Points in Ariz.

Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., is leading Republican Kari Lake by 4 points in the Arizona Senate race, according to a new Emerson College/The Hill poll.

According to the survey, released Wednesday, 44% of registered voters in Arizona prefer Gallego, while 40% prefer Lake in the race for the seat vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who is retiring. About 16% were undecided.

The race narrows when undecided voters are asked which candidate they prefer, with 51% picking Gallego and 49% choosing Lake. The difference between candidates falls within the poll's 3-point margin of error.

"With Sinema off the ballot, independent voters break toward Gallego, 42% to 38%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release. "Voters under 40 break for Gallego 44% to 30%, while voters ages 40 to 59 break for Lake. Those in their 60s are split: 47% for Gallego and 46% for Lake, and those over 70 turn back to Gallego, 50% to 45%."

When it came to the issues, 32% of those surveyed cited immigration first, while 22% said the economy, and 11% said housing affordability. Education, healthcare, abortion access, threats to democracy, and crime each came in at less than 10%.

Among voters who said immigration is the most important issue, 77% support Lake, compared to 12% who support Gallego. But among voters who identified the economy as their most important issue, 43% back Gallego, versus 38% who back Lake.

The same survey also found former President Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, 48% to 44%, with 8% saying they were undecided or would vote for someone else.

In an Emerson poll from February taken before Sinema announced she will retire, Gallego had a 6-point lead on Lake in a hypothetical three-way race that included Sinema. In a one-on-one matchup, Gallego led Lake by 7 points among registered voters.

The poll was conducted March 12-15 and surveyed 1,000 Arizona registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.