The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that nearly two-thirds of voters say the 2024 election will be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Biden has not announced his reelection bid yet, but he is widely expected to do so this spring. Trump is running to be president once again.
The Rasmussen survey reveals that 64% of voters say it's likely Biden will be the Democrat nominee in 2024, including 32% who say it is very likely. Meanwhile, 29% say Biden is unlikely to be the 2024 nominee, including 14% who say it's not at all likely.
Similarly, 64% say Trump will be the Republican Party presidential nominee in 2024, including 32% who say it's very likely. But 31% of survey respondents say Trump won't likely get the 2024 GOP nomination.
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to expect a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. Among Democrats, 49% say it is very likely Biden will be their nominee in 2024, as do 22% of Republicans and 23% of unaffiliated voters. Of Republicans, 42% say it is very likely that Trump will be their 2024 nominee, as do 33% of Democrats, and 21% of unaffiliated voters.
Among likely voters, 27% say they'll vote for the Democrat candidate in 2024, no matter who it is, and 27% will vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% say they will vote for the candidate they like best.
Democrats at a clip of 57% say they'll vote for their party's nominee in 2024 no matter who it is, compared to 53% of Republicans who say they'll vote for the GOP nominee. More Republicans (38%) than Democrats (31%) say they'll vote for the candidate they like best.
Among unaffiliated voters, more are determined to vote Republican (20%) than Democrat (13%) in 2024, but 60% say they will vote for the candidate they like best, irrespective of party.
More women voters (30%) than men (22%) say they'll vote Democrat in 2024. More men (38%) than women voters (27%) say it is very likely that Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024.
Whites (67%) are more likely than black voters (56%) or other minorities (62%) to say it's at least somewhat likely Trump will get the GOP presidential nomination in 2024.
Whites (30%), 23% of black voters, and 22% of other minorities say they'll vote for the Republican nominee in 2024. Whites (27%), 30% of black voters, and 24% of other minorities will vote for the Democrat nominee in 2024, irrespective.
Voters under 40 are more likely to say they'll vote Democrat in 2024, while those 65 and older are more likely to vote Republican. Compared to their elders, fewer voters under 40 see Biden as the very likely nominee for Democrats in 2024.
In terms of income, 50% of voters earning more than $200,000 a year say it's very likely Biden will be the Democrat nominee in 2024, compared to 25% of those with annual incomes below $50,000. Those with incomes over $200,000 are also most likely to say they'll vote Democrat in 2024, no matter who the nominee is.
The survey of 972 U.S. likely voters was conducted on March 14-16, 2023, by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
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