Russian Military Plagued by Surge in Desertions

Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, a substantial rise in defections among Russian soldiers has been reported, indicating growing discontent within the armed forces, as per data from an independent investigative outlet, Newsweek reported.

Reports suggest that a significant number of military-aged individuals from Russia fled to Ukraine in the initial stages of Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion, citing grievances such as low morale and dissatisfaction with their superiors.

Despite the Russian government's assertion that the conflict constitutes a "special military operation" rather than a formal war, measures to enforce discipline have intensified. Notably, amendments to the country's criminal code have been implemented, even as martial law remains unestablished, and the mobilization declared by Putin in September 2022 was termed as "partial."

Figures compiled by the Russian outlet Proekt, drawing from court records, reveal a drastic surge in soldiers seeking to leave their units without authorization.

In 2023 alone, 4,373 individuals were convicted for unauthorized abandonment — a fivefold increase from the preceding year's 887 cases and an almost ninefold rise from the 527 cases recorded in 2021, the year preceding the conflict.

Moreover, the number of soldiers charged with disobeying orders surged in 2023, with 289 cases compared to the rare occurrence of only nine cases in the five years prior. Additionally, 129 individuals faced trial for "desertion," while 31 were accused of feigning illness and other methods to evade service.

Penalties for refusal to engage in combat reportedly average around two years and three months in a penal colony. However, desertion warrants even harsher consequences, with some cases resulting in sentences of up to seven years in a strict regime colony, particularly for those fleeing conflict zones with weapons and ammunition.

Proekt's analysis underscores the severity of sentences under the pretext of "armed conflict or hostilities," noting that many repressive cases may not be reflected in official court records.

The Russian military has suffered significant losses since Putin's invasion, with Ukraine's General Staff reporting casualties of dead and wounded troops reaching 433,090. Though alternative estimates vary, the toll remains substantial.

Speculation abounds regarding Putin's potential announcement of another draft to compensate for dwindling troop numbers following his recent electoral victory, which critics argue was heavily influenced by Kremlin control.

Desertions within the Russian armed forces reflect a broader trend of discontent and disillusionment amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, posing challenges to Putin's military endeavors and raising questions about the sustainability of Russia's aggressive policies.