The overall Electoral College ratings are now "exactly split," between President Donald Trump and the eventual Democratic presidential nominee at 248 electoral votes each, according to an analysis in Sabato's Crystal Ball Thursday.
Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are still considered toss-ups, with another 42 electoral votes, along with Nebraska's Second Congressional District, the report notes.
Meanwhile, the report also adjusted the Electoral College ratings for New Hampshire, moving it from being a "toss-up" to consider it as leaning Democratic.
In 2018, a Gallup poll rated Trump's approval in New Hampshire at 35%, with 58% disapproving. His ratings have since gone up somewhat, according to three other polls, but remain weak for Trump, pushing the Crystal Ball report to list the state as leaning Democratic.
Trump's former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski is edging closer to seeking the GOP nomination to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and if he is nominated, that could be an uptick for Republicans, but the state also may be shifting away from Trump.
Trump appears to be making a push to flip some states that have remained traditionally Democratic, as shown with his rally in New Mexico earlier this week.
In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried New Mexico by about 8 points, and in 2012, former President Barack Obama carried it by about 10 points, but Trump this time around can spend more money in states Clinton carried in 2016.
New Mexico likely isn't an option, but there are other states, like Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada that were decided by 2.5 points or less.
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.