More than 1,000 small islands in the tropics might become uninhabitable by mid-century due to rising sea levels, according to a new study by Science Advances.
The study accelerates prior research that estimated the many atoll islands to become uninhabitable by the end of the century, at least.
"However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability," the 11 scientists write for the journal.
"We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century," the scientists write. "This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events."
The Defense Department supported the study because it has a keen interest in one particular atoll island - Roi-Namur in the Marshall Islands, The Washington Post reports.
The island is base to part of the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site and houses 1,250 military and civilian personnel, the Post reports.
"The department’s understanding of rising sea levels will enable the military services and agencies in affected areas to make informed decisions on how to continue to execute their missions," Defense Department spokeswoman Heather Babb told the Post in a statement.
Further, the scientists found that the worst-case scenario - "the time at which potable groundwater on Roi-Namur will be unavailable" - could happen before 2030. Best case scenario - 2065.
"Even if you take their most conservative scenario, the numbers are really disturbing," Bob Kopp of Rutgers University, a sea level rise expert, told the Post. "And there’s nothing wrong with their conservative scenario."
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