Tenn. Race: Marsha Blackburn Takes Narrow Lead in Senate Race

U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, who has tied herself tightly to President Donald Trump as she aims to succeed one of his most vocal Republican critics in the U.S. Senate, has a modest lead in her election bid, a Reuters opinion poll found.

A Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Poll released on Wednesday showed 47 percent of likely voters supporting Blackburn and 44 percent backing her Democratic rival, former Governor Phil Bredesen, who has staked a centrist course and tried to appeal to Republicans and independents in a deeply conservative state.

Democrats view the race as one of their best opportunities to pick up one of the two additional seats they need to take a majority in the Senate, which they say would allow them to more effectively counter Trump’s agenda. They have a narrow path to a majority as they must also defend seats in the Nov. 6 election in 10 states that Trump won in 2016.

The 3 percentage-point spread is just outside the poll’s 2.5 percentage point credibility interval, a measure of precision. Other recent polls have shown Blackburn with a substantially wider lead.

“It’s become such a Republican state, it’s so difficult to for any Democrat to put together a majority statewide,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who closely tracks political races, in a phone interview.

The seat’s current occupant, Republican Bob Corker, is a Trump critic who is retiring at the end of his term.

Bredesen supporters said they had expected the race to be close.