Home-Grown Extremists Seen Poised to Undertake Attacks in 2021

Extremists motivated by recent political and societal events pose a heightened risk of carrying out attacks in the U.S. during 2021, according to an unclassified assessment from American intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

Potential attackers will be inspired by biases “against minority populations and perceived government overreach,” which “will almost certainly continue to drive” radicalization, according to the four-page assessment released Wednesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Justice Department and Department of Homeland Security.

The extremists will be motivated by developments including “narratives of fraud in the recent general election, the emboldening impact of the violent breach of the U.S. Capitol, conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and conspiracy theories promoting violence,” the agencies said.

The findings echoed recent remarks by FBI Director Christopher Wray and other U.S. officials to Congress, including to lawmakers investigating the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol riot. And it comes amid heightened racial tensions in the U.S. in recent years.

“The problem of domestic terrorism has been metastasizing across the country,” Wray told the Senate Judiciary Committee this month.

Stop AAPI Hate, a group that tracks anti-Asian violence, said it had received almost 3,800 reports of hate incidents since mid-March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic seized the U.S. More than 500 of those attacks came in the first two months of 2021.

Violent extremists motivated by racial or ethnic bias are most likely to conduct mass-casualty attacks against civilians while extremists linked to militias will seek to target law enforcement and government personnel and facilities, according to the assessment.