A new Washington Post poll shows voters in Virginia remain split on whether to redraw the state’s congressional maps and potentially give Democrats four extra seats in Congress.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll found 52% of likely voters support redistricting while 47% oppose, ahead of the referendum on April 21. Early voting has already begun.
While a majority supports redistricting, the poll found Republicans and opponents of the measure are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats and those in favor of the measure.
The poll found 85% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they will vote compared to 77% of Democrats and democrat-leaning independents.
Virginia’s current House delegation has six Democrats and five Republicans, though the proposed map would create 10 Democrat-leaning districts and only one Republican-leaning district.
Democrat lawmakers in Virginia have sought to portray their redistricting plan as a response to Trump's push for Republican states to redraw their maps in an attempt to maintain a GOP majority in the House of Representatives.
Republicans describe it as a way for liberals in northern Virginia to commandeer congressional districts in the rest of the state.
Virginians previously voted for independent redistricting to prevent gerrymandering.
“Given that the higher propensity and more highly motivated voters are opposed, this may be closer than the top-line result suggests,” said Mark Rozell, dean of George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, which co-sponsored the poll to the Washington Post.
“Also, that the opposition has kept it reasonably competitive while being enormously outspent, suggests that a well-funded late push could turn this around. It is far from a done deal,” Rozell added.
The poll found 76% of registered voters say they are certain to vote or have already done so, nearly identical to those who said they would vote in the gubernatorial election.
The Virginia Supreme Court still has not ruled on whether the mid-decade redistricting plan and voter referendum are legal, indicating that the April vote could be all for nothing if it upholds a lower-court ruling blocking the effort.
This poll was conducted from March 26-31 among a random sample of 1,101 registered voters in Virginia drawn from a statewide voter database. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for both registered and likely voters; all registered voters were assigned a probability of voting to produce likely voter results.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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