The World Health Organization (WHO) sounded the alarm on Tuesday, highlighting a staggering 79% increase in measles cases worldwide compared to 2022, with more than 306,000 cases reported last year alone, CBS News reported.
Natasha Crowcroft, a WHO technical adviser, cautioned that the death toll from measles is also expected to rise, given the upward trend in case numbers.
"In 2022, the number of deaths increased by 43%, according to our models, to more than 130,000 deaths occurring from measles," Crowcroft stated during a news conference.
This forecast comes amid growing concern over measles outbreaks, with a recent spike in cases rattling the Broward County Public Schools (BCPS) in Florida. Initially, one case was confirmed at Manatee Bay Elementary School, but within a day, three more cases emerged, bringing the total to four.
Health experts warn that these cases could signal the start of a larger outbreak. Despite measles being declared eradicated in the U.S. more than two decades ago, declining vaccination rates pose a serious threat to public health. The highly contagious virus, characterized by a distinctive rash, is making a comeback, fueled by dwindling herd immunity.
"The way this viral illness spreads, we foresee that the number of unvaccinated children, the immune-compromised, we will start to see an increase in those numbers definitely," remarked Dr. Pallavi Aneja, program director of Internal Medicine Residency at HCA FL Northwest and Westside Hospitals.
Recent data underscores the urgency of the situation. A CBS News investigation revealed that thousands of schools across 19 states have measles vaccination rates among kindergartners falling below the critical 95% threshold recommended by the CDC for community protection. This decline in vaccination rates is deeply concerning to scientists and medical professionals nationwide.
In January, a cluster of measles cases was identified in Philadelphia, and 82 children in Ohio contracted measles in 2022.
Matt Ferrari, a biologist and infectious disease researcher at Penn State University, emphasized the population-level consequences of declining vaccination rates. "The more individuals that are around who are unvaccinated, the more potential there is for disease to spread and to establish transmission that will give rise to outbreaks that will stick around for a long time," he explained.
Looking ahead to 2024, WHO's Crowcroft painted a bleak picture, predicting significant challenges. "One of the ways we predict what's going to happen in terms of outbreaks and cases is by looking at the distribution of unimmunized children," she noted. "We can see from data that's produced with WHO data by the U.S. CDC that more than half of all the countries in the world will be at high or very high risk of outbreaks by the end of this year."
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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