Groups of key voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2016 are not showing the same level of support for the president’s reelection, according to a new poll.
A USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll released Tuesday shows that Trump’s support from several groups of voters who voted for him in 2016 has slipped by 9%.
"You can't lose 9% or 10% of the people who voted for you last time" and still win, Democrat strategist Bob Shrum, who is also the director of the USC Center for the Political Future, which co-sponsors the poll, told the Los Angeles Times. "If that holds, it would be catastrophic for him."
But Trump made some gains, according to the poll, which was one of the few that predicted Trump's 2016 victory.
About 4% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton now say they will vote for Trump, which gives the president a net loss of 5 percentage points.
Poll results show:
- 52% of voters say they will vote for former Vice President Joe Biden.
- 41% of voters say they will reelect Trump.
- 52% of people who didn’t vote in 2016 either because they opted not to or weren’t old enough say they will vote for Biden.
- 34% of people who didn’t vote in 2016 either because they chose not to or weren’t old enough say they will vote for Trump.
According to the poll results, there hasn’t been much change in support despite the two political conventions and the ongoing violence in Portland, Oregon, and Kenosha, Wisconsin.
The poll’s tracking indicates that Biden gained 2 percentage points during the Democratic National Convention and Trump lost 2 points. The president regained some of what he lost during the Republican National Convention.
"Independents who lean toward the Republican Party seem to have been temporarily swayed by Biden's message" during the DNC, said Jill Darling, the survey director for the USC Dornsife poll. But "Trump's dark view of the Democrats' agenda seems to have swept them back into the fold, so the overall result is pretty much a wash."
Despite the stable poll results, some voters who previously supported Trump say they are backing Biden.
Poll results show than nearly 1-in-5 people of color who voted for Trump in 2016 say they will be voting for Biden. About 1 in 4 Latino voters say they will support Trump’s reelection, which is down from more than 3 in 10.
Men who live in rural areas still show strong support for the president, but his support from women has dipped 10 points, according to the poll.
Another stronghold for Trump, white voters without college degrees, has seen a decline in support. He still leads Biden, but not by as much. In 2016, the poll found Trump leading that group of voters by roughly 40 percentage points. Now, his lead is down to about 25 points.
Biden beats out Trump when it comes to white people holding college degrees, 54% to Trump’s 41%. In 2016, poll results show voters were nearly tied in their support for either Trump or Clinton.
Biden is also edging out Trump when it comes to suburban voters, according to the poll. He leads 53% to 40% overall and has the advantage among suburban voters of color and of white, suburban women.
The USC Dornsife poll, a joint project of the university's Center for Economic and Social Research and the Center for the Political Future, surveys each panel member every 14 days. The current results are based on responses from 5,106 panel members. The margin of error is 1 percentage point.
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