Turner: NATO at 75, Should We Cue the Panic?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has very recently marked its 75^th anniversary with a grande fête in Washington, D.C.

Predictably this has stirred the cottage industry of NATO skeptics who return like the periodical cicada to tell the rest of us that the strongest military alliance in the world is failing, on the verge of failing, or has failed altogether.

Amidst this, there is palpable anxiety in Europe concerning the upcoming U.S. elections and their potential to significantly alter NATO commitments, a looming issue that warrants acknowledgment.

Such predictable tirades are about as useful or insightful as a Magic Eight Ball.

It's true that the North Atlantic Alliance faces complex, unique challenges and the world has failed to consolidate democratic and market gains after the collapse of communism.

But NATO is the best model for comprehensive peace, security, multilateral action, and international governance.

It has been that way since its founding in 1949.

So while the leaders of 32 democratic nations from Europe and North America snarl traffic in the nation’s capital this week, it’s worth reviewing what makes NATO such a geopolitical heavyweight and historical outlier.

NATO has delivered its guarantee for a peaceful Europe whole and free. NATO’s national membership has more than doubled since the beginning.

Each new member state expands this area of peace and cooperation, secures democracy, and promotes prosperity.

Even in the contentious Balkans, several countries have joined NATO while others prepare to join. Just like the Allied occupation of Europe and Japan after World War II, NATO’s political and military power has kept the peace in the former Yugoslavia since the wars of succession in the mid-to-late 1990s.

Amid concerns about the upcoming U.S. elections and their potential implications for NATO, this moment presents a unique opportunity for each member nation.

It's a call to reflect on our collective security commitments and proactively plan for enhanced defense capabilities. This is the time to reaffirm our resolve by ensuring sustained investment and modernizing our defenses, turning challenges into opportunities for strengthening our alliance.

NATO sits atop a huge well of economic and political power.

The combined GDP of NATO member countries is $46 trillion.

NATO’s total population, under democratic governments, is more than one billion people.

NATO member countries have deep resources and can count on each other to assist in a crisis. Consensus reached by member governments through NATO have tremendous political, moral, and legal weight.

When the Alliance decides on any issue, large or small, the rest of the world takes note.

NATO is more than a match for all potential adversarial military powers combined.

It's right to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine and fear Vladimir Putin’s paranoia or ego will drive him to a suicidal war with the West.

The real game-changer, however, has been the allied support for Ukraine, particularly under the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group, where NATO’s role has been pivotal.

It's also right to suspect China’s motives in the Pacific, which would affect NATO member countries’ interests in trade, commerce, and navigation.

But Putin’s forces, diminished and depleted by war with Ukraine, are a fraction of what the Soviet Union used to threaten a much smaller NATO during the Cold War.

Take our vast naval disparity.

Ukraine has damaged or destroyed 25 Russian Navy vessels including a nuclear-capable submarine.

Russia’s only aircraft carrier is up on blocks.

China still struggles to project real power beyond the South China Sea.

China’s fleet now has three carriers but no operational experience.

Allied and partner countries, by contrast, deploy 17 fleet carriers and 21 light carriers.

Our combined naval aviation, specifically F/A-18s, F-35s, Harriers, and Rafale fighters, is cross-decked on U.S., French, British, Japanese, Italian, Spanish, South Korean, and Australian flattops.

In a shooting war, Allied production, manpower, and innovation will matter more than standing armies and stockpiles.

NATO and partner countries have not invested seriously in defense for at least 30 years and fought mostly asymmetric wars during that same time.

Now Allied defense spending and procurement have kicked into gear.

While it takes time to start up industrial weapons production and replenish matériel, our market economies can draw on nimble innovators to respond to rapidly evolving capability requirements.

NATO is more popular, and Russia more feared, than the conventional wisdom would hold.

The Pew Research Center’s comprehensive poll of public opinion on the eve of the summit is a popular salve to elite panic.

Earlier this year Pew surveyed more than 40,000 adults in 35 countries on six continents. Happily, the Allied countries polled showed consistent and large majorities supporting NATO.

Positive public opinion is a strong indicator of support for NATO, but public morale will determine the outcome of the war in Ukraine or any great power conflict this century.

Public opinion has affected the political outcome of every major conflict since Korea and our adversaries, past and present, understand that and try to exploit it.

Russia is working to turn the Western public against support for Ukraine and Israel.

Maintaining public support for that mission remains critical.

Doug Turner is the Founding Partner and CEO of Agenda – a U.S.-based, global strategic communications consultancy. He is a former Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow and has advised organizations, including NATO, USAID, UN Women, and others. He has written widely on politics and policy.