China's Xi Jinping may be ready — at least getting ready — to launch new and much more aggressive military actions in Asia, and might well include a major attack on Taiwan.
Some might ask "so why now"?
This question persists — and unfortunately, major powers — including the U.S. — may not yet “see” the compelling internal reasons and incentives for this new round of major Chinese aggression.
It’s quite simple really: Xi and China are in the midst of a major economic decline, already reflected in most all global markets.
Internally, there is an ongoing meltdown of the various real estate markets, with perhaps trillions of dollars at stake, as well as record levels of loan defaults and huge/growing numbers of unemployed, especially among younger workers.
This, together with a rapidly aging population and many other economic indicators in serious decline, signals an imminent Chinese recession/depression — and of a very possible gigantic scale.
Add to this what the West has never really understood about the "Chinese version" of Communism: That it’s also deeply rooted in very Western style capitalism — to the extent that in China, it’s "all about money" and always has been.
Just like in the older Chinese generations, it was "all about gold" and that concept is also still at work in Chinese culture.
Also, we should never forget that we have no idea — just for example — of what the "real numbers" are for the Chinese economy — and they could easily be in far worse shape than we can observe or based on what they tell us.
So, if you’re XI and/or his advisers the "solution" to these looming and monstrous economic catastrophes is quite simple: Take over Taiwan and incorporate it’s massive and enormous business/manufacturing/industrial and tech sectors into the People’s Republic of China's failing economy to save it from economic disaster.
And as part of this, the many large Taiwan-owned businesses and factories in Mainland China would simply be "absorbed" in such a strategy, and this could be viewed as a massive economic stimulation — because most Westerners don’t realize the huge extent of Taiwanese ownership and investment in mainland China.
Seems simple enough, and something we should — at least — be aware of and planning for. Are there increasing "signs" of this kind of "economic aggression" planning in the PRC that we should be aware of?
For sure:
—Recent diplomatic statements from China have them dropping their traditional concept of "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan.
—China is increasing their defense spending by 7.2%. This fuels a military budget that has more than doubled under President Xi’s eleven years in office and represents yet another consecutive increase over the last 30 years.
—Also, and never to be forgotten in dealing with China, the "real numbers" of increased defense spending could easily be two, three, four or even five times the 7.2% — this is something we will never know with any degree of certainty.
—There have been dramatic increases in both numbers and scale of Chinese aggression in the various South China Sea conflicts, especially with the Philippines.
This is a trend that has only gotten more flagrantly aggressive, despite its inconsistency with the rules for Freedom of Navigation (FON) and in violation of decisions by international courts.
In short China claims the South China Sea as part of its territory and this dynamic will only get more aggressive in the months to come.
What should we be doing?
Because the signs of potential — and perhaps imminent — Chinese aggression to respond to their various looming financial catastrophes are already "out there," obvious and increasing on a daily basis, we should already be responding, both diplomatically and with coordinated military capability enhancements, especially with the other major regional powers.
This would include Japan, South Korea and Australia. And, we should begin far more sophisticated information exchanges with all independent countries in the region — to include preliminary discussions on the creation of a new "NATO-like" organization in the Asia — Pacific region to deal with Chinese aggression and intimidation in the region.
We must never forget that China has long-term plans to rule the Asia-Pacific part of the world, and to eventually replace us as the major political, economic and military power globally.
And while Communist China thinks and plans its strategies in terms of decades, the democratic West deals with its political dynamics on the nightly news.
We are simply "not good at thinking ahead" and never have been.
Daniel Gallington was assigned to the U.S.-Taiwan Defense Command in the 1970s. He represented the secretary of defense in multilateral and bilateral arms control negotiations, served as deputy counsel for intelligence policy at the Department of Justice (DOJ), bipartisan general counsel for the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intellignece and deputy assistant secretary of defense for terrirorial security.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.